With French troops poised to withdraw, Mali could revive negotiations with jihadists

Issued on: 16/02/2022 – 14:45

Should Mali negotiate with the jihadist groups that are rampaging across the north and the centre of the country? This is the question at the heart of the rift between France and Mali’s transitional government. Bamako is in favour of opening discussions, while Paris sees it as a red line that must not be crossed.

“We cannot carry out joint operations with powers that decide to discuss with groups that, at the same time, shoot at our children. No dialogue and no compromise”, said French President Emmanuel Macron when announcing the restructuring of Operation Barkhane last June. 

Several security sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said earlier this week that Macron’s announcement to end the nine-year French mission in Mali would coincide with a European Union-African Union summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. 

France’s withdrawal looks set to open a new chapter in Malian negotiations with jihadists. Conditions for such have never been so favourable – to the point that many experts consider the negotiations inevitable. 

“At present, there is an alignment of interests between the junta, the jihadists and the Russians, who all want the French to leave,” said Wassim Nasr, FRANCE 24’s specialist in jihadist movements. Nasr went to a peace conference in Nouakchott, Mauritania, last week, attended by several senior Malian officials, including the Minister of National Reconciliation, Colonel Ismaël Wagué, the Minister of Religious Affairs and Worship, Mahamadou Koné, and the influential Imam Mahmoud Dicko. 

“Everything leads us to believe that contacts have been established in the corridors of this conference with a view to progressing negotiations,” said Nasr. 

Secret negotiations 

The idea of engaging in dialogue with jihadist groups is far from new. Former President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta spoke of how he and his government tried to apply the recommendations originally made by the National Conference of Understanding in 2017. 

Speaking with FRANCE 24 in February 2020, Keïta said, “Talking with jihadists and fighting terrorism is not contradictory. I have a duty and a mission today to create all possible spaces and to do everything possible so that, by one means or another, some kind of appeasement can be achieved. It’s time certain avenues were explored.” 

Mali’s National Conference of Understanding suggested that talks be held with jihadist leaders Amadou Koufa and Iyad Ag Ghali. Koufa leads the Katiba Macina group, while Ghali heads the al-Qaeda affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM). 

The current Malian military junta is following in the footsteps of its predecessors, in the belief that arms alone are not enough to stop the spiral of jihadist violence. At the end of October, a number of local media announced the opening of negotiations under the aegis of the High Islamic Council (HCIM), mandated by the government in Bamako. But the government eventually denied any negotiations had been launched.  

“The Malian government have always continued to negotiate secretly with the GSIM, if only to set up local agreements,” explained Nasr.  

In March 2021, an inter-community agreement made headlines in the commune of Niono, in central Mali. In exchange for forcing women to wear veils and being allowed to preach in the villages, the jihadists agreed to release prisoners and allow armed soldiers to patrol. 

Demonstrating the fragility of this type of agreement, the ceasefire broke down during the summer. Last week, a large convoy of Malian soldiers was deployed to secure the area and bring humanitarian aid to the population. 

‘Last card to play’ for the junta 

The junta, which controls barely a third of Mali’s territory, is under strong international pressure and burdened with crippling ECOWAS sanctions. Its primary objective would be to obtain a truce period.

The prospect of a ceasefire was already accepted in April 2020 by the local branch of Al-Qaeda under the impetus of Mahmoud Dicko, the former president of the Malian High Islamic Council.

“Negotiation is the last straw for France and, in the current context, it is the junta’s last card to play,” said Nasr. “Even if the negotiations ultimately fail, the junta will be able to boast that it has facilitated the return of displaced populations or that it has enabled a particular village to stop being encircled by the jihadists, and that is what counts for the local people.” 

After the departure of France and their allies is announced in coming days, Mali’s neighbour Niger is expected to move in to play a central role in the new military arrangement. Paris is then likely to offer its assistance to other West African countries to help them counter the spread of jihadism towards the Gulf of Guinea. 

This article has been translated from the original in French.