Who will win the Emmys? ‘Succession,’ ‘Abbott Elementary,’ ‘White Lotus’ seem likely

Practically everyone in the cast of “The White Lotus” got nominated. Ditto: “Succession” and “Ted Lasso.”

“Squid Game” managed to carry some of its Screen Actors Guild clout to the table and “Abbott Elementary” proved broadcast television wasn’t dead.

But what about Julia Roberts in “Gaslit”? Ten, 20 years ago, she would have been a lock for an Emmy nomination. Now, she’s not on the list (and the series is competing only in craft categories). AppleTV+’s “Pachinko” was similarly ignored; “Yellowstone” and its spin-off, “1883,” aren’t in the mix and “This is Us,” ending it’s tear-stained run, didn’t get nominations in any of the major categories, including Best Actress, which seemed like a sure thing for Mandy Moore.

Who will win? Emmy loves to double up on previous winners, so look for repeats throughout the night and don’t be surprised if some of those “at last they got nominated” folks don’t go home winners. “Better Call Saul” hasn’t won a major Emmy in its run and could continue that streak this year.

By category, here’s who’s likely to win:

LEAD ACTOR IN LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE: The night’s only sure thing. It’s Michael Keaton in “Dopesick.”

LEAD ACTRESS IN LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE: Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”) would seem likely, but there’s such a strong contingent of support for Lily James (“Pam and Tommy”) she could win.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE: Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus.” Even though he has competition from co-stars, he’s the one. (Oddly, this is one of those categories where six of the seven nominees come from two productions.)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus.” Like Bartlett, she has competition from the inside (five nominees are from “White Lotus,” two from “Dopesick”). The only threat, though, is Kaitlyn Dever from “Dopesick.”

BEST LIMITED SERIES: “The White Lotus.” It feels like it’s going to have a big night.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES (or, the battle of “Succession”): Jeremy Strong won last year; Brian Cox should win sometime. Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul,” is their spoiler. Strong is likely.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: Zendaya, “Euphoria,” stands to double up. Her biggest competition comes from Melanie Lynskey, who made “Yellowjackets” a bespoke fit.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES: It’s time for Kieran Culkin, “Succession.” But last year’s winner, Billy Crudup, “Morning Show,” was still good. Because he’s the only lone nominee in this category (“Succession” has three, “Squid Game” has two, “Severance” has two), Crudup could survive because of a split vote.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: Insiders have been complaining about Rhea Seehorn’s snub for years. Now, the “Better Call Saul” actress can win. Her only real threat: “Ozark’s” Julia Garner, who has won twice and seems strong once again. Garner for the win, Seehorn for the upset.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: “Succession.” “Saul,” though, has a shot.

LEAD ACTOR COMEDY: Bill Hader, “Barry.” He came back (after what seemed like an eternity) and proved he’s still strong. If the “Only Murders in the Building” duo could somehow share the prize, they’d be ripe.

LEAD ACTRESS COMEDY: As much as folks want Quinta Brunson to win something (she can take a writing Emmy), this looks like Jean Smart’s once more. In the second season of “Hacks” she showed even more nuance. It’s hers.

SUPPORTING ACTOR COMEDY: Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso,” is a good choice but Henry Winkler, “Barry,” may just score.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS COMEDY: Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso,” was strong enough to repeat, but there’s a big crowd cheering for Janelle James for “Abbott Elementary.” Frankly, the “Abbott” nominee who should win is Sheryl Lee Ralph, who did more than anyone to make the series grounded.

BEST COMEDY SERIES: “Ted Lasso” with “Abbott Elementary” rising.

BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”

BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM: “RuPaul’s Drag Race”

BEST TELEVISION MOVIE: “Chip ‘n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers”

The 2022 Emmys air Sept. 12 on NBC. Kenan Thompson will host.