UK risks ‘growing epidemic’ of lifestyle-related cancers

The UK is facing ‘a growing epidemic’ of preventable cancers caused by smoking, drinking, obesity and sunburn, research has argued.

The study, undertaken by consultancy Frontier Economics for The Guardian newspaper, has predicted 184,000 people in the UK will be diagnosed with such lifestyle-related cancers this year, at a cost to the country of more than £78bn.

The diagnoses also cause £40bn in lost productivity, cost the people affected £30bn and take up £3.7bn of the NHS’s budget, the study found. Preventable cancers also cost families and carers £3.4bn and the social care system £1.3bn, it added.

The study has estimated that, on current trends, the number of avoidable cancer diagnoses is due to rise from 184,000 to 226,000 a year by 2040 because of population changes.

Between now and then, 3.7 million people will be diagnosed who would have not developed the disease if it had not been for the four known main risk factors – smoking, drinking, obesity and UV radiation. Those cases combined will cost the UK £1.26tn, Frontier has argued.

The looked at the four most preventable cancers: skin, lung, bowel and breast cancer. More than three-quarters (79%) of the 54,500 new cases of lung cancer diagnosed in the UK each year are preventable and almost three-quarters of those are caused by tobacco, it argued.

Similarly, 87% of the 20,500 cases of melanoma could have been avoided if the people concerned had not been exposed to UV radiation through spending time in the sun.

In addition, 54% of bowel cancers are deemed preventable – they are “due to modifiable risk factors”, the study said, because they are linked to a lack of fibre, intake of processed meat or being overweight or obese.

Almost one in four of the 61,500 new cases of breast cancer in the UK every year are also deemed preventable because they involve excess weight or alcohol.

Overall, 97,500 of the 179,000 cases of those four cancers combined that will be diagnosed this year – 54% of the total – will have been preventable, Frontier argued.

The £30bn cost of avoidable cancer to individuals reflects mainly their “quality-adjusted life years” – lost quality of life – when they are ill (£4.3bn) and because some die early (£25.3bn), it added.

The warning has followed research highlighting that the number of younger people, aged under 50, being diagnosed with cancer has risen by nearly 80% in the past three decades.

That study, published in the journal BMJ Oncology, found there had been 3.26 million cases in 2019 – 79% more than in 1990. On top of this, cancer killed more than a million under-50s in 2019, a rise of over 25%.

However, while it highlighted that lifestyle factors such as excess weight, poorer diets and physical inactivity are likely to be contributing, it cautioned that general global population growth and better diagnosis and reporting are also probable factors.

Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, told The Guardian that the Frontier report meant “bold political action” was needed to tackle the harm caused by tobacco and bad diet.

“This report is a stark reminder of the countless lives that could be saved by preventing cancer and a call to the UK government that health prevention strategies are key to relieving pressures on our NHS and economy”, she said.

“If recent trends continue, smoking could cause around 1m more cancer cases in the UK between now and 2040. And more than 21 million UK adults could be obese, which would increase their risk of over 13 types of cancer,” she added.