Turkey’s third-place, far-right candidate endorses Erdogan ahead of runoff

Issued on: 22/05/2023 – 16:55

The nationalist presidential candidate Sinan Ogan, 55, has emerged as a potential kingmaker after neither Erdogan nor his main challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, secured the majority needed for a first-round victory on May 14th. 

Ogan, a former academic who was backed by a far-right anti-migrant party, won 5.17% in the May 14 vote and could hold the key to victory in the runoff now that he’s out of the race.

His endorsement of Erdogan came days after he held a surprise meeting with the Turkish leader in Istanbul on Friday. No statement was made following the one-hour meeting.

Ogan had attracted votes from people who disapproved of Erdogan’s policies but didn’t want support Kilicdaroglu, who leads Turkey’s center-left, pro-secular main opposition party.

>> Read more: Sinan Ogan: The ‘kingmaker’ Turkey’s Erdogan doesn’t need

Analysts say that despite Ogan’s endorsement, it is not certain that all of his supporters would go to Erdogan. Some were likely to shift to Kilicdaroglu while others might chose not to vote in the runoff race. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the anti-migrant party that had backed Ogan hasn’t yet announced which of the two contenders it would endorse.

Erdogan received 49.5% of the votes in the first round – just short of the majority needed for an outright victory – compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. 

Erdogan’s ruling AK party and its nationalist and Islamist allies also retained a majority in the 600-seat parliament. That increases Erdogan’s chances of re-election because voters are likely to vote for him to avoid a splintered government, analysts say.

Ogan listed the conditions to earn his endorsement while speaking to Turkish media last week. Among them were taking a tough stance against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and a timeline for the expulsion of millions of refugees, including nearly 3.7 million Syrians.

Erdogan, meanwhile, told CNN International in an interview that he would not bend to such demands.

“I’m not a person who likes to negotiate in such a manner. It will be the people who are the kingmakers,” he said.

In an apparent attempt to sway nationalists voters, Kilicdaroglu hardened his tone last week, vowing to send back refugees and ruling out any peace negotiations with the PKK if he were elected.

(AP)