NCAA tournament picks: J. Brady McCollough’s prediction for every remaining game

Arkansas guard Davonte Davis drives by Kansas guard Kevin McCullar Jr. during the Razorbacks’ upset win Saturday.

(Morry Gash / Associated Press)

No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 8 Arkansas

Thursday, 4:15 p.m., Las Vegas

TV: CBS

Line: UConn by 3.5.

Original pick: UConn over Kansas.

New pick: I had the Huskies pulling off the same upset the Razorbacks just pulled, knocking off the defending national champion Jayhawks. Arkansas showed a lot of moxie getting past Kansas, but it took a ridiculous showing from backup guard Davonte Davis, who stepped in for a struggling Nick Smith Jr. UConn’s dominant performance in wins over Iona and Saint Mary’s seems more sustainable and keeps my confidence in the Huskies’ spectacular depth across their rotation.

???? Prediction: UConn 68, Arkansas 61

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga

Thursday, 6:45 p.m., Las Vegas

TV: CBS

Line: UCLA by 2.

Original pick: UCLA 63, Gonzaga 60.

New pick: In my original pick, I wrote, “The Bruins absolutely need a healthy Adem Bona to have a chance of slowing down Drew Timme inside.” I am not at all convinced that Bona, who hurt his shoulder during Saturday’s win over Northwestern, is going to play, much less be able to handle Timme, one of the great NCAA tournament big men of the modern era. The Zags showed tremendous toughness coming back to beat a capable Texas Christian squad. I underestimated the supporting cast around Timme. Sorry, Bruins fans, but I’m flipping this one upon further review.

???? Prediction: Gonzaga 66, UCLA 63

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 5 Miami

Friday, 4:15 p.m., Kansas City

TV: CBS

Line: Houston by 7.

Original pick: Houston over Drake.

New pick: When I picked the Drake over Miami upset, I had assumed Norchad Omier’s injury was going to limit him or keep him out entirely. Omier was a force over the weekend, helping the Hurricanes to the second weekend once again. Miami is feisty, but Houston has the best guard on the floor in Marcus Sasser, plus the athletes to tussle with Omier inside in J’Wan Roberts and Jarace Walker. The Cougars move on even with the tougher Sweet 16 matchup.

???? Prediction: Houston 64, Miami 59

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 3 Xavier

Friday, 6:45 p.m., Kansas City

TV: CBS

Line: Texas by 4.

Original pick: Texas 72, Xavier 67.

New pick: In my original pick, I wrote, “The Longhorns are playing with an edge that only comes with trying to get your interim head coach the full-time job.” Texas struggled in the second half to close out Penn State, but the Longhorns ultimately didn’t waver much in their resolve to play for Rodney Terry through two games. Watching Xavier, on the other hand, felt like riding a roller coaster. The Musketeers nearly lost to Kennesaw State and then blew out Pittsburgh. Texas’ consistency, particularly on the defensive end, will win out. I’ll stay with Bevo — and by the same score.

????Prediction: Texas 72, Xavier 67

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State

San Diego State forward Keshad Johnson celebrates during a second-round win over Furman on Saturday.

(Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press)

Friday, 3:30 p.m., Louisville

TV: TBS

Line: Alabama by 7.5

Original pick: Alabama 83, San Diego State 57.

New pick: In my original pick, I wrote, “This one is going to be ugly. There just isn’t much San Diego State can do better than Alabama for 40 minutes.” While I still agree with that last sentiment, I fully did not understand how well-schooled San Diego State is on how to play winning basketball by coach Brian Dutcher. Alabama is going to win this game because it can score and defend at a higher level, but this will be much closer. The Aztecs will make the Crimson Tide work for it well into the second half.

???? Prediction: Alabama 76, San Diego State 66

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton

Friday, 6 p.m., Louisville

TV: TBS

Line: Creighton by 10.

Original pick: Creighton over Arizona.

New pick: First, we have to start by tipping our cap to Princeton, the heroes of the Ivy League and low-major teams across the country. I assumed that the Cinderella magic would wear off in round two against Missouri, but the Tigers only doubled down on the fact they are an excellent team that belongs in the hunt for a Final Four. That said, I can’t take them over Creighton, which survived North Carolina State’s tough guards and then humbled Baylor. I liked Creighton over Arizona because of its ability to beat you offensively from all five spots, and that belief was buttressed only more over the weekend.

???? Prediction: Creighton 73, Princeton 65

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

Thursday, 6 p.m., New York City

TV: TBS

Line: Tennessee by 5.

Original pick: Duke over Purdue.

New pick: I really whiffed on this region, there’s no denying it. I didn’t expect this Tennessee team which had been limping to the finish line to be the squad to break through for Rick Barnes, but here we are. That’s the tournament. Florida Atlantic is a nice story, but the Owls caught a big break with the late injury to Kendric Davis in their Memphis escape and barely edged No. 16 seed Cinderella Fairleigh Dickinson on Sunday. As long as the refs let the Vols play physical, they are going to the Elite Eight.

???? Prediction: Tennessee 67, Florida Atlantic 59

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Michigan State

Thursday, 3:30 p.m., New York City

TV: TBS

Line: Michigan State by 2.

Original pick: Marquette over Kentucky.

New pick: I must have momentarily lost my mind when I picked Montana State over Kansas State in round one. I clearly forgot the power of having a clutch lead guard in March, and the Wildcats’ Markquis Nowell was simply breathtaking throughout the opening weekend. Tom Izzo now has three days to prepare the Spartans for Nowell, and the good news for him is that Michigan State has a heady, mentally tough group in the backcourt. Kansas State first-year head coach Jerome Tang just sent John Calipari home early, but outmaneuvering Izzo in March once he’s got a full head of steam? Not happening.

???? Prediction: Michigan State 64, Kansas State 63