gdp data: ETMarkets Investors’ Guide: What Q3 GDP numbers show about India’s recovery | The Economic Times Podcast

The recently-released data shows that India’s GDP grew by a lesser-than-expected 5.4 per cent in the third quarter, while the growth estimate for the year as a whole was revised downward to 8.9 per cent from 9.1 per cent earlier.

The economic recovery from the scars inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic has been an uneven one with the unorganised sector and MSMEs still struggling.

Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent crude oil prices surging to multi-year highs, posing significant risks to India’s trade deficit and inflation. A hawkish Federal Reserve adds to the external risks for the country.

I caught up with Rajni Thakur, Chief Economist, RBL Bank to get an idea of how the government may set about ensuring a durable recovery, what the RBI may do on interest rates and how the Ukraine crisis could affect India.

Listen in!

Q1. The recently released data shows a lower-than-expected estimate GDP growth for the current financial year. In your view, which are the sectors that the government should concentrate its fiscal push on in order to bring about a sustainable recovery?

Q2. Does the GDP data imply more room for policy accommodation from the RBI? What is your timeline for formal policy normalisation from the central bank?

Q3. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine leading to a surge in crude oil prices, is there a risk of inflation outturns outstripping the RBI’s estimates? With fuel price rises not being passed on during elections does the central bank risk falling behind the curve?

Q4. With EM currencies bearing the brunt of the geopolitical volatility, how will India fare?

Thank you, Ms Thakur for an intriguing conversation.

That’s all in this special podcast. Do keep checking this space for more interesting content and take time out to follow our market podcasts twice every day. Have a good day!