Fed eyes rate hike soon, faster tightening pace if needed

“Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate,” minutes of the Jan. 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting said.

Surging inflation has spurred some U.S. central bankers revise up their outlook for rate increases this year, while both Democrats and Republicans are urging the Fed to get price pressures under control. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have fallen recently as Americans feel the squeeze at the grocery store and gas pump, and the price pressures are making it that much more difficult for his administration to pass another stimulus package.

A move at the FOMC’s next meeting on March 15-16 is fully priced into markets and there’s been some betting that officials could increase rates by as much as 50 basis points. Investors see at least 150 basis points of tightening in 2022, up from 75 basis points just a few weeks ago, as the evidence continues to show a hot economy that’s experiencing the highest inflation in 40 years.

Bloomberg

Government data since policy makers met a few weeks ago has reinforced that message, with consumer price growth accelerating to a four-decade high of 7.5% in January. In the labor market, the U.S. added almost half a million new jobs last month despite record Covid-19 cases, and wages surged.
Fed officials, responding to hot inflation, have sped up the taper of their asset purchases and are on track to conclude the program by the middle of next month. During the meeting, the FOMC discussed balance sheet runoff plans for later this year.

“A number of participants commented that conditions would likely warrant beginning to reduce the size of the balance sheet sometime later this year,” the minutes said.

Following the release of the minutes, the yield on 10-year Treasury note gave up earlier gains to trade change little change on the day, while curve pared a steepening move. Meanwhile the S&P 500 index remained lower as did the dollar.

Money market derivatives held fairly steady their predictions for how much the Federal Reserve will increase its policy rate this year, with about 36 basis points of increases in March and around 157 basis points for the entire year.