Disney warns France that future blockbusters could bypass cinemas

Disney will release Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in French cinemas next month but has warned that its biggest movies may go straight to streaming in 2023 unless what it calls the country’s “anti-consumer” distribution rules are fundamentally reformed.

The decision ends months of debate at Disney over whether to use the blockbuster Marvel movie, an important highlight of the box office calendar for the cinema industry, to take a stand over France’s highly restrictive “windowing” regime.

France sees the system, which sets the timetable of when films shown in cinemas can then be shown on television or streaming platforms, as a key way to protect its film industry and cinemas.

Disney said on Monday its decision rested on French authorities acknowledging the system “needs to be modernised” and setting “a clear timeline for those discussions”. But it added that until a “quick and equitable solution is found”, future movie releases would be decided on a “film-by-film basis”, implying some may be held back if progress is not made.

Under the current rules governing the industry in France, the decision to opt for a cinema release will prevent Disney from showing the Black Panther sequel on its Disney Plus streaming service in France until April 2024, and then for only five months.

Unless a partnership deal is agreed with a broadcaster, the film will then return to the Disney Plus service permanently only in November 2025 — three years after it hits cinemas. During that period the movie will have shown on French pay TV and free-to-air channels. Outside France, by contrast, the Black Panther sequel is likely to appear on Disney Plus by Christmas.

“As we have stated before, we believe the [French windowing system] is anti-consumer and puts all studios at increased risk for piracy, which is why the majority of the stakeholders agree that it needs to be completely revised,” Disney said.

The stand-off with Disney comes as French cinemas have been struggling to attract consumers back to cinemas. Ticket sales for the first nine months of this year were about one-third lower than in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic, according to figures from the Centre National du Cinéma. Only 7.4mn tickets were sold in September, the lowest tally for the month since the 1980s.

Against that backdrop, Disney’s threat to cut off French cinemas from its blockbusters is being taken seriously by the industry and regulators. Falling ticket sales pose a direct threat not only to cinemas, but also to production companies because France’s distinctive system of public and private financing for cinema is based on a tax on tickets as well as contributions from broadcasters. Fewer Hollywood blockbusters mean less money for French cinema producers.

Disney has already shown its willingness to hold back some titles; the animated movie Strange World, which will hit US cinemas next month, will go straight to Disney Plus in France. The 2023 Disney slate includes Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones 5 and The Little Mermaid.

In France, media companies must negotiate their windowing with various cinema industry groups, with the accords then reviewed and issued by regulators. In general, the more a company contributes to French cinema production, the shorter window they can negotiate.

In December 2021, pay-TV group Canal Plus was the first to sign a deal, which set a benchmark for later ones with streaming groups. The Vivendi-backed company committed to invest about €200mn in annual financing into French movies, and saw its window from theatrical release shortened to six months from eight earlier.

Netflix later signed a deal under which it will contribute annual financing to French cinema production for the first time in exchange for reducing the window to 15 months from 36 months previously. Amazon agreed to 17 months.

Such delays were far too long for Disney, given its greater reliance on movies, so it refused to sign a similar accord. It has since been trying to pressure the industry bodies and French regulators that have to ratify the windowing agreements to come back to the negotiating table.

Culture minister Rima Abdul-Malak said in a TV interview in mid-September that she was in favour of “reopening the discussions” on the windowing rules, which she described as “not being cast in stone.”