The valuation premium of Indian equities over emerging and developed markets hit a record high in August, Bloomberg data show. The MSCI India index—a benchmark for global fund managers to assess the country’s investment performance—now has a valuation premium of 96% and 39% over the MSCI Emerging Markets and the MSCI World indices, respectively. Over the long term, India has traded at 45% and 8% premium to the EM and DM markets.
1. P/E PREMIUM
a. Over emerging markets
Bloomberg
b. Over developed markets
Bloomberg
2. OUTPERFORMANCE YTD basis (indexed to 100)
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Bloomberg
3. PRICE-EARNINGS MULTIPLE
Bloomberg
4. KEY DRIVERS FPI flows FPIs turned net buyers in the second half of July and deployed $5.7 billion in August so far, the highest in 20 months
Relative outperformance India’s dollar market capitalisation is down 1.4% this calendar year against a 14% drop in global market capitalisation.
5. WHAT IT MEANS
Foreign flows drove PE expansion as 12-month consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate fell 2% after June quarter results
This is the second quarter in a row consensus EPS is declining
Spread between earnings yield (inverse of P/E) and bond yield over 200 basis points against long-term average of 100 basis points
Markets at risk of a sharp correction in case of adverse events
Gains may be limited going ahead
May weigh on incremental foreign flows in the near term unless earnings growth improves
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Bloomberg