Covid-19: With daily cases dropping to 1.3 lakh has Coronavirus 2nd wave ended? Expert answers

Reaching its daily peak of 4.16 lakh Coronavirus cases on May 6, the decline in the second wave of Coronavirus has been consistent. Starting from April 4 when for the first time the daily tally crossed a lakh the havoc wreaked by the second wave of pandemic continued through the whole month of April and continues till now. However, the trajectory of the second wave has now reached a level which can be tackled by the existing health infrastructure of the country, experts told the Indian Express. Experts point out that the number of active Coronavirus cases in the country is close to half of what the country had at the peak of the second wave. The drop in Coronavirus daily cases has been reported in almost all the states of the country with the positivity rate consistently declining.

Has the second wave ended?
Other factors which are in line with the declining Covid trajectory is the number of Covid-19 related casualties which have come down from the peak of 4400 per day deaths to close to 3000 deaths per day. The decline has been consistent but the second wave is not yet over as the daily tally of Coronavirus is still above a lakh with the country recording 1.32 lakh cases on Thursday. The number of cases being reported per day is way above than the peak of the first wave which was close to 97000 cases during September last year. The number of active cases and daily death toll is also way more than that registered at the peak of the first wave last year. On top of it, the rise in almost all North Eastern states of the country is also worrying.

When will cases go further down?
Prof Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur who has been tracking the Covid-19 statistics in the country told the Indian Express that the daily case count by the end of this month is expected to be in the range of 20000 which would be same as that in January this year before the beginning of the second wave. Asked if the lockdowns and restrictions imposed by the state governments played a key role in controlling the second wave, Agrawal said that the peak of the second wave would have reached its peak at the same time even if there were no lockdowns but the death toll and caseload in that scenario would have been much higher.

Agrawal further said that the trajectory of Coronavirus has been in line with the computer model his team was working on and if there were no major surprises, the second wave will end by the end of June.