As China eases Covid restrictions, Club stocks stand to gain

By Eli Pacheco On Dec 8, 2022

The Chinese government’s move Wednesday to further roll back strict Covid-19 measures should boost the prospects for a host of Club holdings with substantial operations in China, including Estee Lauder (EL), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Starbucks ( SBUX), all of which have been weighed down by nearly three years of lockdowns. The news China’s National Health Commission on Wednesday said people will now be able to travel throughout the country without showing a negative Covid test or health code. The new rules also allow those with mild or asymptomatic Covid cases to quarantine at home, rather than at designated facilities. Additionally, local authorities will no longer be able halt work or production unless an area is designated as high-risk. Beijing’s decision to further ease public-health policies comes a little more than a week after protests erupted in China over the government’s draconian zero-Covid policy, an approach that has severely restricted citizens and pressured the world’s second-largest economy. China has taken minor steps in recent months to ease its Covid restrictions, but Wednesday’s announcement amounts to the most significant policy shift to date. Impact on Club stocks Club stocks with China exposure largely followed the broader market lower Wednesday amid a day of choppy trading in equity and energy markets, fueled by growing fears of a recession. But, ultimately, the holdings which rely on China for a substantial portion of revenue — Estee Lauder, Wynn and Starbucks — should see their stock prices ultimately move higher, as China’s economy reopens. For months, we have argued that China’s strict Covid stance was untenable over the long term and eventually a serious pivot toward reopening would materialize, providing much-needed clarity to businesses and helping spur economic activity. As a result, we’ve exercised patience and held onto stocks like Wynn Resorts, which depends heavily on its casinos in the Chinese special administrative region of Macao. At the same time, we also know stocks are forward-looking assets, and decided not to wait for Beijing to to fully roll back restrictions before investing in Estee Lauder, which relies on China for more than a third of total sales. In late September we bought back into the cosmetics giant, and still believe it’s worth buying here. Similar thinking informed our decision to initiate a position in Starbucks in late August . As Wednesday’s announcement likely helps China’s economy to recover, a number of other Club holdings should also see tailwinds. At a high level, our energy stocks — Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Devon Energy (DVN) and Halliburton (HAL) — benefit from elevated crude oil prices. And increased oil demand from the world’s No. 2 economy should ultimately lend support to crude, with knock-on effects for our oil stocks. Apple (APPL) is another potential beneficiary of China’s policy shift. The iPhone maker has faced Covid-related production hold-ups at facilities in China , warning as recently as November about a potential hit to sales. On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley lowered iPhone shipment expectations for the December quarter by 3 million units, after having trimmed forecasts by 6 million units last month, on the back of manufacturing disruptions in China. Chip designer Qualcomm (QCOM) also has warned about the impact of China’s Covid policy, saying that overall macroeconomic weakness in the country has weighed on smartphone demand. Increased economic activity in China could benefit Qualcomm down the road. An uptick in air travel in China could be good news for Club holding Honeywell International (HON) and its already strong aerospace business . The industrial firm makes parts for Boeing (BA) and European rival Airbus, both of which operate in the Chinese market. Honeywell also has a large commercial aerospace aftermarket business that has benefited from a recovery in international air traffic. China is Procter & Gamble ‘s (PG) second-largest market outside the U.S. and its been weighed down by Covid lockdowns. The maker of Olay skin care products and Gillette razors continues to bet on China, but management has said it needs consumer mobility to recover so long-term growth trends can resume. Bottom line China’s decision to further ease Covid protocols is positive and we expect further reopening measures to be enacted down the line. Of course, Beijing has not officially dropped its so-called zero-Covid stance, and it’s possible there could be temporary setbacks in response to a surge in cases. But Wednesday’s announcement, nonetheless, signals an important development for Club stocks with China exposure. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Although domestic travel in China continues to be jeopardized by Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, international flights have doubled since June.

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