Approvals, price caps seen as biggest risks for $18b Origin buyout bid

The ACCC said it had been contacted by Brookfield, EIG and Origin.

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“We are awaiting a submission in due course, but expect to conduct a public review where we will carefully consider any likely competitive impact resulting from the proposed transaction,” an ACCC spokesperson said.

While some observers view FIRB approval as “less of an issue” because both bidders are well-known in Australia, Credit Suisse analyst Saul Kavonic has flagged that Treasurer Jim Chalmers might use the approvals process to pressure the suitors to make certain commitments. Origin’s Asia Pacific LNG (APLNG) venture is one of the three east-coat gas exporters in the cross-hairs of intensifying federal government pressure to make more gas available to the domestic market at lower prices.

“The government could use its approvals leverage to try and extract concessions on domestic gas supply and pricing,” Kavonic said.

A spokesperson for Chalmers said the transaction would be subject to regulatory processes and considerations, “so it is not appropriate to comment further at this time”.

As surging fossil fuel costs drive up energy prices across Australia’s eastern seaboard, the Albanese government is debating a range of potential interventions in the gas market to tame runaway bills, such as setting price caps on local gas sales and stronger limits on how much gas can be shipped as LNG.

Investment bank Macquarie on Friday said government policies surrounding gas and possibly coal could influence Origin’s profit outlook and affect the consortium’s final offer price.

CLSA analyst Daniel Butcher said the consortium’s offer, at a 55 per cent premium, was “very likely to proceed”. “We view the deal as a knockout offer,” he said. “The conditions are fairly standard – due diligence, ACCC, FIRB – so we believe the risks to the deal becoming binding are quite low.”

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