What declining college enrollment means for the future of higher education

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, postsecondary school enrollment has declined by 938,000 students—that’s a 5% drop from fall 2019. From 2020 to 2021 alone, there were about 465,300 fewer undergraduate students who chose to attend college. Though it remains to be seen whether numbers will bounce back as campuses emerge from the pandemic, education experts have long been expecting a decline in postsecondary education. 

Among the major reasons for the decline in college enrollment is the strength of the U.S. economy. For example, following the Great Recession in 2008, college enrollment increased at record rates as nontraditional and older students headed back to school in a weaker job market. Declining enrollment today is a regression to historically normal rates as many working-age adults are opting to stay in the job market rather than pursue higher education.

Four states comprise half of the decrease in college enrollment across the U.S. between fall 2019 and fall 2020, a period that, not surprisingly, coincides with the first two years of the pandemic: California (-26%), New York (-10%), Ohio (-7%), and Texas (-7%).

Since 2020, community colleges nationwide have experienced the greatest decreases in enrollment with a decline of 13.2%. Between 2020 and 2021, 4-year, public schools experienced a 3.8% decline, a greater decrease compared to other colleges.

Other contributing factors to a slowdown in enrollment include a smaller population of Americans aged 21 and younger, flatlining high school graduation rates, and increases in tuition, which have left some students unable or unwilling to pay. Many may feel that as long as they already hold or can find a job, why enroll in college? With college enrollment declining 11% since 2011, EDSmart looked at what this decrease means for higher education.