Wedbush: Apple could be worth $4 trillion by 2025

Analytics firm Wedbush believes Apple could be worth $4 trillion by 2025, as the company could hit a $3 trillion market cap this week if the stock hits $190.73, or 1.5% higher than last night’s closing price. The first time Apple hit $3 trillion was in January 2022, a few months after announcing the M1 Pro and M1 Max MacBook Pro models and the iPhone 13 lineup.

Wedbush analysts note that Apple is more than capable of reaching and even surpassing a $3 trillion market cap. They note the Cupertino company “navigated a myriad of China supply chain challenges along with a softer macro over the last 18 months in Rock of Gibraltar fashion, and thus Cook and Cupertino find themselves back against all odds (from the bear view) on the doorstep of the $3 trillion market cap threshold this week.”

While Wedbush states that some analysts believe Apple had a “broken growth story,” the firm thinks the company will head into a “massive renaissance of growth over the next 12 to 18 months.” Not only does Wedbush say Wall Street has underestimated the “massive installed base upgrade opportunity around iPhone 14,” but there’s also a “mini super cycle iPhone 15 ahead,” as roughly 25% of customers that haven’t upgraded in the past four years will soon do so.

What makes Wedbush so sure that Apple could be in the $3.5 trillion range with a bull case $4 trillion valuation by FY25 is its service revenue growth. The firm says Apple is playing chess while others are playing checkers:

In FY24, the Cupertino stalwart is on pace to approach $100 billion of annual services revenue growing double digits which is a jaw-dropping trajectory vs. the roughly $50 billion+ of services revenue that Apple was delivering only in FY20. Herein lies the key to the valuation re-rating that we believe will continue to take place around Apple’s stock as the Street further appreciates the sheer massive potential of this services revenue that we now assign a valuation in the $1.4 trillion range.

In addition, Apple’s Vision Pro could also be responsible for more significant growth as those who have tested the device have sounded optimistic about the AR/VR headset. While the spatial computer won’t be responsible for Apple’s growth in the near term, it could be the “first step in a broader strategy for Apple to build out a generative AI-driven app ecosystem for its golden customer base that will have thousands of use cases across fitness, health, sports/movies,” and more.