US Open women’s singles preview, prediction: Time to strike for Coco Gauff or will WTA’s Big 3 dominate in New York?

The atmosphere on Arthur Ashe Stadium on that Tuesday night in September 2022 was reminiscent to the one Serena Williams produced throughout her illustrious career. Under the closed roof, to keep the rain away, for the round of 16 tie in women’s singles, Coco Gauff had managed to rile up the crowd to generate a crowd energy so loud that at one point that her opponent, Shuai Zhang of China, had to cover her ears. With the home crowd behind her, Gauff, who had earlier that year reached her maiden Grand Slam final in French Open, had managed to script her best ever run at the US Open. And while the American went down in the quarters a night later, leaving the crowd in dismay and implying that she still could be well far from replicating Serena, Gauff, who has for the longest time been deemed as the next big thing in women’s tennis, since she broke into the scene with a win over the legendary Venus Williams in Wimbledon 2019, for the first time in her career, heads to the major as one of the top favourites. Having beaten world No.1 Iga Swiatek en route to her maiden WTA 1000 title in Cincinnati last week, Gauff has the chance to write off the dominance of the Big 3 in US Open, which begins from Monday onwards, and end the long wait for America in world tennis.

FIRST QUARTER:

Gauff has been handed a real test in US Open where although she opens against a qualifier, the 19-year-old could face rising teen sensation Mirra Andreeva in a French Open rematch in the second round before setting up a clash with compatriot Danielle Collins. But the big threat lies in the fourth round where she could run into two-time Wimbledon winner Petra Kvitova, who in turn will have to surpass stiff challenges from Caroline Wozniacki, in the second round, and a returning Jennifer Brady, in the third.

If Gauff manages to navigate through a tough first week at the Big Apple, she will set up a Cincinnati Open rematch against Swiatek. In the semifinal last week, Gauff put on a sensational show against the Pole to claim her maiden win against the world No. 1 in eight meetings.

However, if that semifinal loss and a similar in Montreal, the week before, makes Swiatek vulnerable in New York, then its time to revisit her North American hard court swing run in 2022. The 22-year-old had suffered a third-round exit in both the WTA 1000 events and yet managed to script a title-winning run in US Open. The Pole’s earliest threat stands in Jelena Ostapenko and Veronika Kudermetova, in the fourth round, before she looks to avenge her loss against Gauff in the quarters.

Quarterfinal: Swiatek beats Gauff.

SECOND QUARTER:

2022 Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina is the sole big name in this section of the draw. Scheduling difficulties did leave her “destroyed” over the last fortnight especially since that 3:00 AM finish against Daria Kasatkina in Montreal, which led to her loss in the semis next round and her withdrawal in the second-round tie in Cincinnati the following week. But if the Kazakh has managed to regain her fitness level for the final Grand Slam of the year, she could emerge as the top favourite to make the semis. However, the fourth seed hasn’t had the best of runs in US Open in her last four appearances, managing a dismal 3-4 win-loss record which included a first-round exit last year.

She will have to overcome a tricky start, against Marta Kostyuk in the opener, before running into a returning Ajla Tomljanovic, the 2022 Open quarterfinalist and the last player to have beaten Serena. Rybakina’s quarterfinal threats lie in Maria Sakkari or Karolina Muchova, who made the Cincinnati final last week.

Quarterfinal: Rybakina beats Muchova.

THIRD QUARTER:

If Gauff is among the favourites to script an upset in this US Open, so is her doubles partner Jessica Pegula, who won the Canadian Open title, beating Swiatek in the semis en route. Since 2021, Pegula has made six quarterfinals in Grand Slams, including a run at US Open last year, but never made it to the semis. In 2023, the American is the only player with six WTA quarter-final appearances on hard court, but made the semis in three them, winning one.

Pegula arrives in New York in her best of form and would be raring to end the long-standing drought, but will have to get through a trick first week which includes an opener against a dangerous Camila Giorgi, a possible third-round match against Wimbledon semifinalist Elina Svitolina and a run in with one between compatriot and former US Open runner-up Madison Keys or a rising Liudmila Samsonova, whom she faced in the Canadian Open final.

Quarterfinal: Pegula beats Marketa Vondrousova.

FOURTH QUARTER:

This section of the draw offers two big names in Aryna Sabalenka and Ons Jabeur. If it has been the quarterfinal hump for Pegula, Sabalenka has been suffering from the same in the semis. Since 2021, she has reached 13 WTA semifinals, making the final on just five occasions. In 2023, she broke the duck only on Madrid, having reached the semis in French Open, Wimbledon and Cincinnati.

Despite early threats in Karolina Pliskova, Donna Vekic and Daria Kasatkina, Sabalenka stands favourite to make the quarters where she could set up a possible Wimbledon rematch against Jabeur, the 2022 finalist. The Tunisian’s preparation for the US Open is however far from ideal, having withdrawn from Canadian Open with knee injury before going down in straight sets to Sabalenka in Cincinnati quarters. But Jabeur has always reserved her best for Grand Slams, having reached the final thrice in the last five majors, with second-round Australian Open exit being the only blip.

Quarterfinal: Sabalenka beats Jabeur.

Semifinals: Swiatek beats Rybakina; Sabalenka beats Pegula.

Final: Swiatek beats Sabalenka.