US consumer price growth unexpectedly rose in August

The monthly pace of US consumer price growth unexpectedly rose in August, maintaining pressure on the Federal Reserve to deliver another big interest rate increase this month.

The consumer price index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, increased 0.1 per cent in August — above economists’ expectations for a 0.1 per cent drop and an acceleration from the pause registered in July — as a fall in energy costs failed to fully offset increases in services and other spending categories.

On an annual basis, headline inflation is running at 8.3 per cent, down from 8.5 per cent in July, but still near a four-decade high.

The surprising jump came despite petrol prices having tumbled in recent months. Earlier this summer, they topped a record $5 a gallon earlier in the summer following a jump in oil prices after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The current national average is $3.70, according to the American Automobile Association.

However, once prices for energy and food are stripped out, core CPI rose further. Between July and August, it increased 0.6 per cent, translating to an annual increase of 6.3 per cent. That is up from the 5.9 per cent recorded during the previous period.

The latest CPI report is the last big data release before the US central bank’s next policy meeting, at which officials are expected to implement a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise.

That will lift the federal funds rate to a new target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent. By the end of the year, futures markets suggest the benchmark policy rate will settle between 3.75 per cent and 4 per cent.

In recent weeks, Fed policymakers have reaffirmed their commitment to bringing inflation under control, emphasising the risks associated with allowing price pressures to persist.

Failing to bring down inflation, and allowing expectations of future price increases to spiral, was likely to mean more economic pain later on, chair Jay Powell and vice-chair Lael Brainard warned last week.

As petrol prices have fallen, so too have expectations about future inflation. Data released by the New York branch of the Fed on Monday showed that households now expect inflation to settle at 5.7 per cent in a year’s time, down from 6.2 per cent.

Policymakers worry this downward trend will not be sustained, however, especially if energy prices jump later this year. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen warned of that possibility over the weekend, citing concerns about a widespread shortage across Europe as the bloc stops buying oil from Russia.

Christopher Waller, a governor who sits on the Federal Open Market Committee, said on Friday that he supported “another significant increase” to the benchmark policy rate at the September gathering. He noted that the US economy’s resilience and the strength of the labour market gave the Fed “the flexibility to be aggressive” in its fight against inflation.

US president Joe Biden is expected to host an event at the White House on Tuesday afternoon to celebrate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act — a package of measures approved by Congress in August that includes incentives for clean energy and some higher taxes on the wealthy and large companies. While economists do not believe the legislation will have an immediate effect on inflation, it could ease price pressures over the longer term.

High inflation has dogged the economic recovery for months, handing Republicans an advantage heading into midterm elections in November. But the recent softening of price pressures, particularly through lower petrol prices, has offered some political relief to the White House.