The ‘unreadable’ Kyrgios weapon that could help the Aussie end Djokovic’s juggernaut in Wimbledon final

Novak Djokovic is a three-time defending champion at Wimbledon, aims to join the legendary Pete Sampras in the second spot for the list of most titles at the All England Club, stands second for most Open Era match victories at the SW19 and is presently on a 27-match winning streak (fourth best in Open Era). Irrespective of who stands at the other end of the court, the numbers certainly make Djokovic the outright favourite. However, none of his 85 wins on the lush-green Wimbledon courts have been against Nick Kyrgios. And whole it may not be a concerning factor at all for the 20time Grand Slam winner, numbers show otherwise.

Despite a no-Wimbledon meeting so far, the two have faced each other twice before with Kyrgios winning both the matches, albeit both in 2017. And what left Djokovic concerned about those loses, in Acapulco and Indian Wells, was that he failed to neither claim a set nor break the Aussie’s serve.

Kyrgios fired 24 aces in their Acapulco meeting, won 82 per cent of points behind first serve and 70 per cent behind second serve. He also saved the only break point he faced. A fortnight later, Kyrgios registered 14 aces in the Indian Wells meeting, had an impressive first-serve success rate of 86 per cent and did not face a single break point.

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The losses and more so, the manner of the defeat left Djokovic concerned as he turned to his strategy analyst Craig O’Shannessy, who was a part of his team for both of those matches, to observe Kyrgios’ serve and find any clue that could help him read it better.

“Whether it’s his feet, the ball toss – anything different or any tell with where he’s serving,” Australia’s Sydney Morning Herald quoted here O’Shannessy as saying. “I ran overlay of Nick serving out wide and down the middle, and there’s no difference.

“Novak was adamant there has to be something that you can read from Nick’s serve, but we found literally nothing. The wide serve and the T serve happen off the exact same toss. And because Nick’s motion is so quick, it’s unreadable.

“And Novak fears that service game. He absolutely does and that’s self-evident with Novak nominating Nick as the best serve he’s played against.”

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Despite what has been a chaotic 2022 for the 35-year-old, he has returned to his best on grass, losing just five sets en route to his fourth successive Wimbledon final. However, Djokovic is yet to face an opponent with as daunting serve as that of Kyrgios.

The 27-year-old has hit 120 aces in the tournament so far, which is exactly 24 aces a match, while registering an unreturned serve percentage of 44 and has saved 82 per cent break points. He has 78 per cent win on first serve, but what remains the least talked about has been his success rate of 53 per cent behind his second serve.

“That second serve is arguably a bigger weapon because Nick’s confidence and willingness to switch things up, no-one else does that when really they should be trying it,” O’Shannessy said. “He’s got the game to really worry Djokovic and really go all the way.”

The Djokovic advantage

However, Djokovic has put up incredible return figures in the tournament so far with 32 and 59 per cent success rate against first and second serves respectively. Not only does that outnumber Kyrgios’ win rate of 28 and 49 per cent respectively, the Serb has registered comparatively better serving numbers than the Aussie, winning 82 and 56 per cent points on first and second serves respectively.

What Djokovic might also want to concentrate on is to keep the rallies longer. Both have an identical success rate in shorter rallies, but while Djokovic’s win rate remains similar in mid-length (5-8 shots) and long rallies (9+ shots), Krygios has looked vulnerable.