Super Rugby final: Signs point to Blues title win, but don’t rule out a Crusaders smash and grab

Comment – It’s happy days at Eden Park as they prepare to do something the All Blacks embarrassingly couldn’t achieve the last time they were there – a sold-out stadium.

The Blues are averaging an astounding 37 points a game on Eden Park, Jamie Wall writes.
Photo: PHOTOSPORT

The full house signs will be loud and proud on Saturday evening as the Blues host the Crusaders, with the competition’s* showpiece event being held at the country’s biggest stadium for the first time in almost two decades.

Belief is high among thousands of Blues fans who will pour through the gates. After all, their side has won 15 games in a row and only dropped their rescheduled opener against the Hurricanes way back in February.

The Blues are averaging an astounding 37 points a game on Eden Park. Their side has been a perfect mix of players in direct contention for All Black spots with others, even Beauden Barrett, so the motivation to perform is even higher than usual.

The rest of the team are almost all promising youngsters, with the notable exception of Luke Romano, who is enjoying such a stunning form revival that his impressive Dad Bod is being seriously added to the test selection conversation.

Then, earlier this week, the form of two of their standouts was rewarded when the All Black squad was announced. Stephen Perofeta’s combination with Barrett has been outstanding, so that was no real surprise, but even less so for Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s elevation. After all, what was the point of bringing him over from the NRL if he wasn’t going to be an All Black?

The Blues are the one Super Rugby team whose identity was forged out of a highly understandable superiority complex, given that in Super 12’s early years they were putting around a dozen All Blacks on the field for any one game.

This self-belief saw them win the first two editions of the competition, before a slight lull and return to glory in 2003 – but since then the Blues have been the tragic figure of New Zealand rugby, the key to its biggest market but seemingly hamstrung by poor decision-making on and off the field.

But not anymore. The buzz-phrase these days in sports talk is about pulling in the same direction, whether it’s a boat or waka or whatever. This Blues organisation has made this journey by backing coach Leon MacDonald despite early wobbles, recruiting smartly and adjusting well to the challenges that the last couple of years have thrown up.

So, it’s in the bag right? If they were playing any other team, yes.

But this is the Crusaders, 12-time champions** and the last four in a row. This is the first time since 2014 they will play a final away from Christchurch, in fact, the last time they won one on enemy territory both MacDonald and Scott Robertson were playing for the Crusaders.

If any team can do a smash and grab and spoil the Blues’ party, it is the Crusaders. Much has been made of the Blues’ streak at Eden Park, but the last time the Crusaders went there, they won comfortably.

The Crusaders can take heart from their comfortable win over the Blues at Eden Park in April.
Photo: Photosport Ltd

Not only that, but they did so in the most humiliating style possible.

Both Richie Mo’unga and Sevu Reece taunted the crowd with post-try celebrations, then Mo’unga had the audacity to claim the Crusaders were “very humble” (while keeping a straight face) in the press conference afterwards.

Whoever wins, it’s probably not going to be by much. The tight nature of last weekend’s semifinals means that goal kicking will be crucial and it’s highly likely the scores will go up in threes, not fives or sevens.

The Crusaders have been seemingly happy to concede plenty of penalties at the start of games and almost dare the refs to take further action, but that will be a foolhardy tactic against the Blues at home. That attitude has also seen them record three red cards this year, with one being Scott Barrett being dismissed in the loss to the Blues.

Scott Barrett gets his marching orders in the round-robin match against the Blues.
Photo: PHOTOSPORT

But one statistic that favours the Blues is arguably the most compelling: three out of their last four games and four out of their last seven have been decided by four points or less. Two were settled on the last play.

The Blues won all of them.

*Super Rugby Trans-Tasman doesn’t count and even the Blues admit that.

**Super Rugby Aotearoa does, and even though the Crusaders once broke the trophy everyone can admit that.