Stocks Fluctuate, Yields Rise on Inflation Debate: Markets Wrap

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Stocks in Asia were mixed Wednesday and bond yields extended their advance amid a debate about the scale of monetary tightening to fight inflation.

Equities climbed in Japan as the yen weakened. A pullback in technology stocks and reopening challenges were a drag in Hong Kong. Sluggish Chinese manufacturing data and the government’s pursuit of Covid Zero weighed on shares and the yuan. US futures rose after benchmarks retreated Tuesday.  

Treasuries extended a decline, pushing 10-year yields closer to 2.9% as traders raised bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Euro-zone consumer prices jumped 8.1% to a record from a year earlier in May, further spooking investors. The dollar advanced. 

Article content

Oil rose to near $115 a barrel as investors assessed the future of OPEC+ unity, just as ministers from the group prepare to meet on Thursday to discuss its supply policy for July. Crude rose after advancing about 10% in May, stoking inflation worries. 

Concerns that central-bank rate hikes may induce a recession are keeping investors guessing about the outlook for the economy as rising food and energy costs squeeze consumers, and volatility has picked up.

“It’s times like these when investors need a crystal ball,” wrote LPL Financial strategists Jeff Buchbinder and Ryan Detrick. “We fully acknowledge how tough it is to see the bull case for stocks right now, and a retest of recent lows is certainly possible, but this week we lay out the bull case for the second half of the year. It starts with inflation.”

Article content

President Joe Biden used a rare meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to declare that he’s respecting the central bank’s independence – while simultaneously shifting responsibility for taming decades-high inflation ahead of the November midterms. The meeting came ahead of US payroll numbers Friday. 

“There are heightened concerns around inflation and where central banks are likely to go trying to combat inflation,” Kristina Hooper, Invesco Advisers chief global markets strategist, said on Bloomberg Radio. “This has gone from just an inflation scare to a growth scare. Uncertainty has grown.”

How will markets be affected by the Fed’s quantitative tightening? QT officially starts Wednesday and is the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. Click here to participate anonymously.

Article content

Here are some key events to watch this week:

The Federal Reserve is set to start shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet WednesdayThe Fed releases its Beige Book report on regional economic conditions WednesdayNew York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speak at separate events WednesdayOPEC+ virtual meeting WednesdayCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the economic outlook ThursdayUS May employment report FridayThe UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization releases its monthly food price index at a time of maximum concern about global supplies on Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as of 1 p.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%Topix index rose 1.2%Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1%Hang Seng Index fell 0.8%Shanghai Composite Index was little changedEuro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.6%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 129.13 per dollarThe offshore yuan was at 6.7011 per dollar, down 0.2%The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0718

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 2.86%Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose seven basis points to 3.42%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $115.09 a barrelGold was at $1,836.77 an ounce

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Bloomberg.com