The NFL didn’t do the Rams any favors this week. Not only is it tricky enough with two late-season road games against the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens, but Sunday’s game was flexed to another early kickoff.
The Rams are 4-0 straight up and 2-2 against the spread, with wins and covers against the Vikings (-3.5) last week and the New York Giants (-7) this season. The non-covers were against the Indianapolis Colts (-4) and Houston Texans (-17). While the schedule makers and the league aren’t helping the Rams, they might catch a break with the status of Lamar Jackson.
Rams (-4.5, 46½) at Baltimore Ravens, 10 a.m. PST Sunday, FOX
Those who saw the practice clip of Jackson hobbling around Wednesday must feel there is little chance he will start for the Ravens. His absence Thursday, coupled with a line move in favor of the Rams, seemed to offer further evidence that QB1 might not play.
Quarterback Tyler Huntley was activated off of the COVID/reserve list, so the Rams won’t get so lucky as to face Josh Johnson. The truth is that Huntley might not be that much worse than Jackson, if at all. Huntley can run the same offense given the similar skill sets. Jackson is certainly more accomplished, but he has a 16/13 TD/INT ratio on the year and has taken 38 sacks.
Jackson’s mediocre season has taken on greater meaning because the Baltimore secondary has been ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness. Baltimore’s defense has struggled as a whole, allowing 6.1 yards per play this season. The Rams, who lead the NFL in yards per play, should be able to take advantage of a defense that is dead last in net yards per pass attempt.
As the Rams charge toward the playoffs, the one question mark left appears to be at the most important position on the field. Matthew Stafford had an 11/2 TD/INT ratio over the four games prior to facing Minnesota, where he threw three interceptions and only completed 57 percent of his passes. The Rams are good enough to overcome a subpar game from Stafford, but it would certainly help if he went into the playoffs on a high note.
Defensively, Los Angeles has allowed 5.2 yards per play, which is one of the stronger marks in the league. The Rams are also sixth in defensive DVOA, a metric from Football Outsiders that many bettors use in analysis. Baltimore, on the other hand, is a bottom-five defense and one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
The spot for the Rams is a little bit tricky and Huntley is plenty capable. Los Angeles should win and might very well cover, but the over is the play here. Fatigue could be a bit of a factor for the Rams’ defense. The Rams can exploit that bad Baltimore defense and Huntley looks a bit underrated in the market.
Pick: Over 46.5
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