Oil jumps on supply risks, ongoing Keystone outage

Brent crude futures were up $2.38, or 3.1%, at $78.48 a barrel by 11:02 a.m. EST (1602 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.88, or 4.1%, at $73.90 a barrel.

Last week, Brent and WTI fell to their lowest since December 2021 as investors worried a possible global recession could hurt oil demand.

Traders worried about how long Canada’s TC Energy Corp would take to clean up and restart its Keystone oil pipeline after more than 14,000 barrels of oil leaked last week, the largest U.S. crude oil spill in nearly a decade.

TC Energy shut the pipeline after the spill was discovered late last Wednesday in Kansas. The company told officials in Washington County, Kansas, that they have not yet determined the cause and were excavating around the 622,000 barrel-per-day Keystone line, a critical artery shipping heavy Canadian crude to U.S. refiners. The outage is expected to shrink supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, delivery point for benchmark U.S. crude oil futures.

Bank of America Global research said Brent could rebound past $90 per barrel on the back of a dovish pivot in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and a “successful” economic reopening by China.

“China’s reopening is definitely something the market is focused on,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

China, the world’s biggest crude oil importer, continued to loosen its strict zero-COVID policy, though streets in the capital Beijing remained quiet and many businesses stayed shut over the weekend.

On Monday, queues formed outside fever clinics in the cities of Beijing and Wuhan, where COVID first emerged three years ago.

“Oil markets will likely stay volatile in the near term amid uncertainty over the impact on Russian output from the EU’s ban, headlines on China’s COVID policy, and central bank movements in the U.S. and Europe,” UBS analysts said in a note.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia could cut production and would refuse to sell oil to any country that imposes a “stupid” price cap on Russian exports.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister also said on Sunday that price cap measures had no clear results yet.

The number of tankers waiting to pass through Istanbul’s Bosphorus Strait fell on Monday, showing an easing of the recent build-up in traffic.

“The

EU embargo on Russian crude… may add moderate upside energy price risks in the next few months. But supply uncertainty should ease by spring 2023, after the embargo on oil products (on Feb.5) plays out,” Deutsche Bank said in a note.