March Madness Sweet 16 picks: J. Brady McCollough’s prediction for every game

St. Peter’s Hassan Drame dunks during a win over Murray State in the second round of the NCAA tournament on Saturday.

(Darron Cummings / Associated Press)

No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s
Friday, 4:09 p.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Purdue by 12.5
Pick: Cinderella gets to dance again just 90 miles from home in Philadelphia, and there’s little doubt that the crowd at Wells Fargo Center will be pulling hard for St. Peter’s. The Peacocks deserve all the love, and they’ll keep this game close against Purdue, which rarely plays well as a clear favorite. But the Boilermakers found an antidote to the pressure cooker of March by playing through big man Trevion Williams.
Purdue 77, St. Peter’s 69

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Providence
Friday, 4:29 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: Kansas by 7.5.
Pick: It seems Vegas still isn’t convinced Providence, the Big East regular-season champion, can win big March games. The Friars handled their business easily against inferior teams, and they’ll keep the same formula against Kansas — play stifling defense that feeds into its offense. The Jayhawks are notorious for messing up great situations in March, and here’s another one: beat Providence and Miami/Iowa State to make the Final Four. Bill Self’s squad will do just enough to avoid heartbreak this time.
Kansas 64, Providence 60

UCLA guard Tyger Campbell controls the ball during the Bruins’ win over St. Mary’s in the second round of the NCAA tournament on Saturday.

(Craig Mitchelldyer / Associated Press)

No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 8 North Carolina
Friday, 6:39 p.m.
TV: CBS
Line: UCLA by 2.
Pick: In the first round, I had a lot of confidence in UCLA, and the Bruins got lucky to win against Akron. In the second round, I flipped to St. Mary’s, and UCLA looked like a Final Four team once again. My gut says the Tar Heels’ Armando Bacot will feast inside and that the Bruins are in trouble if Jaime Jaquez Jr. can’t go. But I’ll go against my instincts and trust UCLA’s poise in tough moments whether Jaquez plays or not.
UCLA 69, North Carolina 66

No. 10 Miami vs. No. 11 Iowa State
Friday, 6:59 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: Miami by 2.
Pick: One of the few things I felt sure of entering the tournament was that Iowa State didn’t belong and was going to be handled by Louisiana State. Oops. The Cyclones doubled down by knocking off the Badgers, who were basically playing a home game in Milwaukee. Despite gaining respect, I still like Miami’s trio of scoring guards Charlie Moore, Kameron McGusty and Isaiah Wong to find enough gaps within a stingy defense.
Miami 67, Iowa State 60