Kazakhstan protesters take to streets over rising fuel prices

A sharp increase in motor fuel prices has sparked protests in Kazakhstan and demands for further political change in Central Asia’s largest economy.

This week’s demonstrations form the first big test for new president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in a country where protests against the government have been uncommon. Late on Tuesday the government announced a state of emergency in the city of Almaty and the western region of Mangystau until January 19.

Kazakhstan, along with Russia and other countries in the wider region, have been struggling with high inflation and rising prices for basic commodities amid the economic strain of the pandemic.

Thousands of people have taken to the streets in multiple cities across the country in the past two days.

The first demonstration in Mangystau drew protesters unhappy with a doubling of the price of liquefied natural gas — which is widely used as a cheaper alternative to petrol in cars in Central Asia — to 120 tenge per litre, equivalent to $0.27 cents.

The current protests have been called the biggest to date for Kazakhstan, based on unclear footage from social media. They are also the first since the 2019 presidential elections, which followed the resignation of Nursultan Nazarbayev after nearly 30 years in power.

Some officials in western regions agreed to cut the price of fuel, but protesters remained in the streets and made new demands, including improvements to the quality of life, the prorogation of parliament and the resignation of Nazarbayev from his position as “Leader of the Nation”, under which, according to reports, he essentially retains control of most of the country’s main spheres.

Several social media outlets have reportedly been blocked and dozens of people detained.

Mangystau province agreed to more than halve LNG prices to 50 tenge per litre. Tokayev created a special governmental committee to find a compromise, and promised to discuss “demands of a socio-economic nature”, according to his Twitter account.

“I ask the demonstrators not to follow the calls of destructive forces, interested in undermining the stability and unity of our society,” Tokayev wrote.

After this message failed to send anti-government protesters home, police started using tear gas and stun grenades against them in the largest city of Almaty, Russian media reported.

The government will now have to do more than just reverse the gas price rise to calm the atmosphere, said Charlie Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, including potentially through big pay increases.

“Government promises to reverse gas price hikes may need to be followed by more gifts to the electorate,” he wrote in a note.

Although he did not expect the events to lead to any significant political change in Kazakhstan, Robertson said that they “will spark more talk of inflation triggering political change”.