Is Arteta’s Arsenal stuck in neutral or ready to click into gear?

The last time Arsenal finished in the top four was in 2015-16. It was also the last time the North London club had a shot at making a play for the Premier League title, eventually finishing second in Leicester’s miracle season. Since that runner-up position, Arsenal has placed fifth, sixth, fifth, eighth and eighth under three managers: Arsene Wenger, Unai Emery and Mikel Arteta.

To be fair to the Gunners, they have managed to win trophies in this period — two FA Cups (and two Community Shields), which when added to the two FA Cups and two Community Shields they claimed between 2013-14 and 2015-16 give the fans something to smile about. Especially since some of their rivals haven’t got their hands on any silverware. But there is no disputing the fact that in the league, Arsenal hasn’t been able to sustain top-four quality through a season. It has been overrun by clubs with deeper pockets, smarter strategies and more resilient wills.

Wenger’s final years were a difficult period. He had guided the club through more than a decade of financial tightening to pay off the new stadium’s debt, with a vision of competing for the title again, boosted by the increase in ticket revenue. But the footballing and financial landscape changed. Clubs such as Chelsea and Manchester City found new billionaire owners willing to invest heavily. Although Wenger ended Arsenal’s trophy drought, the team slipping out of the top four twice in successive seasons led to a parting of ways. The football under Emery never captured the imagination of fans accustomed to Wengerball. When the results began to dip, he was afforded little patience. It was under these circumstances that Arteta took over.

A former Arsenal captain, the Spaniard, who was 37 then, had served a three-year apprenticeship as Pep Guardiola’s assistant at City. Guardiola and the players Arteta had worked with, including Raheem Sterling, gave him rave reviews; he also spoke of playing a proactive style of football, in line with Arsenal’s traditions. “We are the biggest football club in England, and we have to play a little bit with that arrogance, that belief,” Arteta told Sky Sports after his first win, against Manchester United. But Arteta had never managed a club before, leave alone one of Arsenal’s size. The decision to charge an inexperienced manager with the momentous task of overhauling the side, returning it to its former status, represented a significant risk for Arsenal.

After a little over two years of Arteta’s reign, where does the ‘project’ stand? The manager, answering this question in December, said it had been an “incredible journey”, as he reflected on the second anniversary of his appointment. “Now it is a new phase where we start to rebuild the team,” he said. “I think now [the feeling] is excitement. Excitement to keep driving this project forward, to keep working with this really young squad, but ready to compete, to get better and take the club back to where it belongs.”

In terms of results, there have been some high points but also several low ones. Arteta has won the FA Cup and picked up a Community Shield, but he has also presided over some dire runs of form. Just four months after winning the FA Cup in August 2020, Arsenal was 15th, with only one win in its previous 10 league games, putting Arteta’s position under intense scrutiny. A part of English football’s top flight since 1919, Arsenal found itself in uncharted territory, facing a relegation battle. It eventually finished eighth, but the start to the 2021-22 season was worse. Calls for Arteta to be sacked were widespread after an embarrassing 5-0 thrashing at Manchester City in August 2021, one of three straight defeats in the month, Arsenal’s worst start to a season since 1954.

There have also been questions about Arteta’s man-management. Two of the club’s biggest stars, Mesut Ozil and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, left because of a strained relationship with Arteta. Centre-back William Saliba, one of Europe’s brightest young talents, was asked to play with the under-23 side and then sent out on loan to Marseille, where he has excelled. Critics of Arteta cite an ‘inflexibility’ when dealing with big personalities and the middling league results to make the case that Arsenal has gone nowhere under the Spaniard.

But other observers point out that an overhaul needs a certain ruthlessness. And that Arsenal has become smarter in the transfer market, phasing out older talent, clearing out several peripheral players, cutting the wage bill, and only looking to buy young players with a decided upside at a price it deems appropriate. They also cite the development of Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Emile Smith Rowe, Kieran Tierney and Gabriel Magalhaes as evidence of Arteta’s ability to improve young talent once he is convinced of their commitment to the cause.

Sports-writer Jonathan Liew made the point in the Guardian that the club hierarchy needs to continue to back Arteta because you can’t stop an overhaul midway. “Whether in transfer strategy, team selections or the decision to freeze out senior players like Mesut Ozil and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Arsenal have consistently taken the long-term view … given Arteta’s inexperience and the rage of the fanbase, cutting him loose was probably the easiest thing to do,” Liew wrote.

“Instead Arsenal have not simply backed their man, but backed his vision… The transfers of Ben White and Aaron Ramsdale in the summer were both pushed over the line despite their premium fees, in large part on Arteta’s insistence… Results can be deceptive. You don’t always get what you deserve. The league table lies all the time. These are not always the easiest things to say in football, and yet the story of Arteta’s time at Arsenal suggests that it is the only real way of building something that lasts. At the very least, you feel the least he deserves right now is a little patience.”

What’s more, the results have picked up this season, as has the quality of football, after the calamitous start. When Arsenal has managed to get its best XI fit and on the pitch, it has looked a top-four side. After a 2-0 win over West Ham in December, Arteta’s team was in the top four at that stage of a season for the first time in two-and-a-half years. “It was a statement result. The performance, attitude and commitment is exactly what we are about,” Arteta said.

The run-in to the end of the season is an important period not just for 2021-22 but also the future. If Arsenal does not finish in the Champions League positions, its task of attracting high-end talent will prove even more challenging. It will also have its work cut out to keep its own young stars from pursuing their ambitions elsewhere if it can’t promise European football.

The club did not sign a striker, a midfielder or a back-up right-back to Takehiro Tomiyasu in the January window despite being light in those areas, something that could cost it. “We are very clear we only want the best people and the best players,” said Arteta, addressing the transfer business and looking ahead. “When we are in a rush and the reasons to get a player are not the right ones we don’t do it. The most important thing is that we’re all on the same page, focused with the right belief and go game by game to get the level of performance we need to win as much as possible.”