India would need nearly 250 million more doses to cover new cohorts

On Saturday, in an address to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India will be opening its vaccination for children aged 15 and over. The prime minister while assuring the nation of the readiness to brace for a wave of infections owing to Omicron also announced that the country will be administering booster doses to healthcare and frontline workers and vulnerable population over the age of 60 with underlying health conditions. The “precautionary dose” will be administered from January 10.

On Saturday, the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) had given emergency use authorisation to Bharat Biotech for use of Covaxin for children above 12 years.

India has 30 million health and frontline workers in the country and 8.1 per cent of the people in the country are aged 60 and above.

A Business Standard analysis shows that there are 76 million children aged 15-18 across the country. The analysis is based on data from the Sample Registration System report of 2018. If India were to administer two doses each to people aged 15-18, it would require 152 million more doses starting January 3.

Analysis of data for children aged 15-18 shows that nearly 40 per cent of the 15-18 population for the nation is based in three states. Uttar Pradesh accounts for 19.4 per cent of the people in the age group, followed by Bihar at 11.6 per cent and Maharashtra at 8.3 per cent.

Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are also some of the worst states in terms of vaccine administration. While the country had achieved 148 per cent coverage in terms of total dose administration—a 200 per cent coverage implies complete vaccination—Uttar Pradesh had only a 124 per cent total dose coverage, whereas Bihar had 131 per cent coverage.

The country has till now administered the first dose to 835 million people, of which 576 million were fully vaccinated. There are 940 million adults aged 18 and above in the country.

Of the total 1.41 billion doses administered, only 10.79 per cent are Covaxin and the rest are Covishield doses. The country has been averaging 6.2 million doses daily, lower than 8.2 million doses on average nearly three weeks ago.

There are 111 million people aged 60 and above in the country. Assuming that even half have comorbidities, India would need nearly 250 million additional doses to vaccinate this cohort.

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