ICC World Cup Qualifiers: Qualification scenarios after Scotland beat West Indies

The ICC World Cup 2023 Qualifier witnessed a historic moment on Saturday, with Scotland handing West Indies a seven-wicket defeat in Harare to knock them out of contention for the last two spots in cricket’s showpiece event that gets underway in October later this year.

The defeat meant that two-time champions West Indies will not be appearing in an ODI World Cup for the first time since the tournament’s inception in 1975, marking a new low for the Caribbean side that has been going through a freefall across formats since their triumph in the 2016 T20 World Cup.

Eight teams including hosts India qualified for the 13th edition of the ODI World Cup by finishing in the top eight in the ICC Cricket World Cup Super League that began right after the 2019 edition in England. The remaining two slots were to be decided in the 10-team World Cup Qualifier.

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While 1996 world champions Sri Lanka and Qualifier hosts Zimbabwe remain firm favourites to finish in the top two at the end of the Super Six stage, Scotland’s win on Saturday certainly has made things a lot more interesting. There’s also Netherlands who are currently mathematically alive in the tournament despite losing their first game of the Super Sixes.

We take a look at the qualification scenarios for the four remaining teams in the Qualifier:

Zimbabwe:

Matches: 3; Points: 6; Net Run Rate: 0.752; Remaining games: Sri Lanka, Scotland

The Chevrons have produced some of their best cricket in recent years in the ongoing World Cup Qualifier that they are hosting in the cities of Harare and Bulawayo. It was their 35-run victory over West Indies in Harare last Saturday that began the slide for the Shai Hope-led side. They would then smash records in the game against USA, where they became the newest team to post a 400-plus total in ODIs and win by a margin of 300 runs or more.

Zimbabwe began the Super Sixes with a 14-run win in a high-scoring encounter against Oman and face Sri Lanka in their next assignment on Sunday followed by Scotland on Tuesday. Although winning all three games in the Super Sixes will be their aim, a victory over either side should seal the deal for them as only one of Sri Lanka and Scotland will be able to reach eight points from thereon and finish in the top two.

Sri Lanka:

Matches: 3; Points: 6; Net Run Rate: 1.832; Remaining games: Zimbabwe, West Indies

The fact that Sri Lanka, champions in 1996 and runners-up in 2007 and 2011, are having to compete in the World Cup Qualifiers is in itself a matter of worry for what is a proud cricketing nation. The islanders started the tournament as strong favourites alongside fellow former champions West Indies and while the latter fell out of the race, the Dasun Shanaka-led side have lived up to their favourites tag with a series of dominant performances.

Sri Lanka made it four-in-four in the Qualifiers with a scrappy 21-run win against Netherlands on Friday and have placed themselves in pole position to finish at the top of the Super Six table. They face hosts Zimbabwe on Sunday followed by the already-eliminated West Indies on Friday, and a win against either should see them through to the finals in India. Their Net Run Rate is miles better than Zimbabwe and Scotland, meaning they’ll have to suffer massive defeats in their remaining games to fall out of the race.

Scotland:

Matches: 3; Points: 4; Net Run Rate: 0.188; Remaining games: Zimbabwe, Netherlands

Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe were strong favourites to finish in the top two heading into the Super Sixes with West Indies needing to win all three games and hope other results went their way to sneak into the showpiece event.

Scotland’s victory over West Indies on Saturday, has changed the equation completely; not only are the West Indies out of the race, the Richie Berrington-led side’s chances of returning to the ODI World Cup after eight years just received a boost.

They face hosts Zimbabwe and Netherlands in their remaining fixtures and will have to win both if they are to make it. What will also aid their cause will be the loser of Sunday’s Zimbabwe-Sri Lanka fixture going on to lose their final Super Six match as well. Additionally, their NRR is nowehere close to that of Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe at the moment, so they’ll have to win big and hope other results go their way.

Netherlands:

Matches: 3; Points: 2; Net Run Rate: -0.560; Remaining games: Oman, Scotland

Netherlands pulled off the heist of a lifetime against West Indies on Monday, finishing level on scores in a chase of 375 before Logan van Beek’s Super Over heroics got them two valuable points that helped them finish above Windies at the end of the Group Stage.

The Dutch, however, began the Super Sixes with a 21-run defeat against Sri Lanka, the defeat putting them on the verge of elimination from the race to the finals. The Scott Edwards side, after all, are only mathematically alive at the moment and will need something of a miracle to finish in the top two and compete in the final in Harare on 9 July.

Netherlands face Oman and Scotland in their remaining fixtures, and needless to say, will have to win both contests. Given they’re the only team still in contention with an NRR in the negative, they’ll have to win big if they are to qualify. And hope that the loser of the Sri Lanka-Zimbabwe contest goes on to lose their final game. In which case, the Netherlands-Scotland game could be a virtual semi-final.

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