How Tether Emerged as a Winner in a Wobbly Stablecoin Market

The world of stablecoins is suddenly looking shaky.

Seismic shifts may be afoot in the $137 billion (roughly Rs. 11,35,000 crore) market after New York-based Paxos Trust Company, which mints Binance’s stablecoin, said it would cease issuing new BUSD tokens after US regulators labeled the asset an unregistered security.

The US move has left investors questioning the future shape of the market for stablecoins, tokens that are usually backed by traditional assets like dollars and US Treasuries to tame the wild swings that characterize cryptocurrencies.

The immediate impact hasn’t been negative for the stablecoin market as a whole, though; it’s actually seen its total value grow by $2 billion (roughly Rs. 16,570 crore) since the Paxos announcement on February 13.

“There’s way too much demand for dollar-based stablecoins for them to go away,” said Alex Miller, CEO at bitcoin developer network Hiro.

Instead rivals are vying to cash in on the woes of BUSD, the world’s third-biggest stablecoin, whose market value has shrunk to $12.9 billion (roughly Rs. 11,06,900 crore) from $16.1 billion (roughly Rs. 1,33,400 crore), with its market share narrowing to 9.4 percent from 12.1 percent, according to CoinGecko.com.

Market leader tether (USDT) has been a big beneficiary, adding $1.9 billion (roughly Rs. 15,740 crore) to its market capitalization to hit $70.3 billion (roughly Rs. 5,82,350 crore) since the news. It now commands 52.6 percent of the stablecoin market, up from just over 51 percent.

Circle’s USD Coin, the second-biggest stablecoin, edged up over $700 million (roughly Rs. 5,800 core) to $42 billion (roughly Rs. 3,47,990), lifting its market share to 31.3 percent from 30.9 percent.

And the winner is.. Tether

Stablecoins are a key part of the cryptosphere, with their steadier value meaning they’re used as to facilitate transfers between cryptocurrencies or into regular cash. Traders also use these tokens to hedge their positions, and hence dwindling market value is associated with falling liquidity and leverage in the broader crypto market.

Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at crypto firm Matrixport, said the Paxos announcement and subsequent slump in BUSD had caused a big shift in the stablecoin market.

“And tether wins.”

Broader crypto market impact also seems to have been contained with bitcoin rising 14% over the past week to $24,902 (roughly Rs. 20,63,255), shrugging off worries that central banks will keep raising rates.

Among the reasons for the sanguine reaction is that BUSD is largely used to trade on Binance, the world’s largest crypto trading platform, while its usage is limited in other parts of the crypto world, according to analytics firm Kaiko.

“While BUSD is used in DeFi, it is not systemically important to the ecosystem,” Kaiko’s Riyad Carey said.

Betting on future prices

The developments around Binance’s stablecoin have also boosted trading on competing platforms; since February 1, Binance’s bitcoin liquidity is down almost 30 percent while US-based Coinbase’s is up nearly 15 percent, according to Kaiko.

Daily open interest for bitcoin to BUSD perpetual swaps has dropped from over 17,000 bitcoin at the beginning of February to 13,726 bitcoin, Binance data showed, pointing to traders withdrawing bets on future prices for BUSD.

While some uncertainty remains on the impact of the US Securities and Exchange Commission ruling on other stablecoins, the market appears to have adjusted, according to some crypto players.

“This is unlikely to represent a critical large structural change to the market, for now,” said Vetle Lunde, analyst at Arcane Research. He added: “Enforcement against USDC or the non-US domiciled USDT, could have more dramatic implications.”

© Thomson Reuters 2023