Hansen’s Sunday Notebook: A long NBA run for Azuolas Tubelis would be a surprise, even if his Arizona basketball departure is not

Of the 38 freshmen who were part of Arizona’s 10 basketball recruiting classes from 2012-2021, five remained in their Wildcat uniforms for the once-traditional four seasons:

Kaleb Tarczewski. Gabe York. Dusan Ristic. Parker Jackson-Cartwright. Ira Lee. That’s it. None of those players made the all-Pac-12 team or were drafted by an NBA team.

Five of 38. That’s a 13% retention rate. It’s also college basketball, 2023.

Thus, the chances of an All-American like Azuolis Tubelis remaining at Arizona for his senior season, 2023-24, were so slim that even a prayer or two to the basketball gods would’ve seemed hopeless.

The days of Damon Stoudamire, Luke Walton or Channing Frye playing four years of college basketball are ancient memories.

Now the attention turns to Tubelis’ chances to be one of 58 players drafted in June. The odds of that are also about 13%, which includes many variables, as follows:

At the NBA combine, Tubelis will be put under a “measurables’’ microscope. The UA lists Tubelis at 6-11, but my guess is he’s closer to 6-9. Deandre Ayton, who was listed at 7-1 at Arizona, was found to be 6-11 during the 2018 NBA combine. His wingspan is 7-6. That’s probably not a number Tubelis will approach, thus affecting his ability to score at the rim in the NBA.

How important is scoring at the rim? According to analytics from the just-completed NBA regular season, 32% of all points were “at the rim’’ baskets, mostly dunks. Yet Tubelis had just 18 dunks at Arizona this year, less than one per game.

Also, 35.5% of all NBA points this season were 3-pointers, the No. 1 scoring total. Tubelis had 10 3-pointers this season. That statistic alone took Tubelis out of first round consideration.

Moreover, Tubelis hasn’t been one who draws a lot of fouls and therefore isn’t likely to beat you at the free throw line. This season, Oumar Ballo attempted more free throws, 206, than Tubelis, 178. For a better perspective, Tubelis isn’t one of 16 Arizona players to shoot 200 or more free throws in a season.

Derrick Williams attempted 331 in 2011. Even UA point guard Jason Gardner attempted 240 foul shots in 2002, which made him a colossal offensive threat.

Tubelis probably compares most closely to ex-UA power forward Michael Wright, 1999-2001, who made just one 3-pointer as a Wildcat but was an absolute dominating player inside five feet, very physical, as well a productive rebounder (8.4 career average). Wright had 34 double-doubles in three years as a Wildcat. Tubelis had 22.

Yet Wright wasn’t drafted until the 39th overall pick after his junior season and did not play a minute in the NBA. Many of the NBA mock drafts I’ve seen have Tubelis anywhere from 40-75.

NBA scouts will give Tubelis plus ratings for his positive attitude, strength, ability to run the court and catch the ball in traffic, as well as his No. 1 skill, establishing deep post position..

Part of Tubelis’ decision to attend the NBA Combine was probably that he looks at his former teammates, NBA rookies Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko, and thinks “I’m as good as they are.’’ And he is.

No matter how it turns out, even if he’s playing in the EuroLeague or the G League in 2024, Tubelis should make well into six-figures and find a place he can play and add to his game for the next decade.

Mark Arneson is clearly one of the five or six leading football players ever produced in Tucson, joining Michael Bates, John Fina, Vance Johnson, Mike Dawson and Fred W. Enke — a select group of ex-Wildcats who made it big in the NFL.

A linebacker from Palo Verde High School – unrecruited until two months before he began his freshman season, 1968 – Arneson left Arizona as its career leading tackler, the 32nd overall player selected in the 1972 NFL draft. He was a linebacker in the Dick Butkus mold: physical and fearless.

Arneson died last week at his Missouri home. He was 73. He had been in declining health in recent years, a condition his family believes can be traced to a dozen or more concussions in his football career. The Arneson family plans to donate Mark’s body to the NFL’s study of CTE, brain injuries. There was no “concussion protocol’’ during Arneson’s NFL days.

Arneson was so highly respected that he was a charter member in the first class of the UA Sports Hall of Fame in 1976, joining UA legends Button Salmon, Pop McKale and Art Luppino. That speaks for itself.

On Saturday, the Pac-12 Network and its regional links broadcast the Arizona-UCLA softball game, the Arizona-WSU baseball game and the Arizona spring football game.

By July 2024, when the Pac-12’s current media rights agreement ends, there is likely to be no more Pac-12 Network. Does that mean UA softball, baseball, women’s basketball and even some men’s basketball games won’t be televised?

The league’s current media rights package does not have a contingency plan to continue to distribute games to Comcast, Cox, DISH or any cable company. That could mean the end to non-revenue sports broadcasts for Arizona.

This year, 15 UA women’s basketball games were on the Pac-12 Networks, as are 16 Arizona softball games and 18 UA baseball games. The Wildcats’ men’s basketball team played 13 regular season games on the Pac-12 Networks.

What happens when the Pac-12 Networks is eliminated? That’s one variable in the ongoing Pac-12 media rights negotiations that has gotten very little mention.

The year before the Pac-12 Network was established in 2011-12, Arizona played most of its men’s basketball games on Fox Sports Arizona, distributed by various cable companies such as DISH, Comcast and DirecTV.

But FSA has since become Bally Sports Arizona, and is in the middle of a fiscal calamity. Diamond Sports, the parent of Bally Sports Regional Networks, declared bankruptcy recently, late on payments to the Arizona Diamondbacks, among others.

Although the Pac-12 Networks have a relatively small distribution – an estimated 14 million households nationally – they were the one source, invaluable, for dozens of Arizona sports events each year.

Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff, whose media rights negotiations center almost 100% on football, must be diligent in finding a way to keep baseball, softball and women’s basketball on the air.

I was watching the Grammys Salute to the Beach Boys on CBS last Sunday — oh, how I love the Beach Boys — when Harvey Mason walked on stage. Yes, that Harvey Mason, Arizona basketball guard, 1987-1990.

Somehow I missed it when the incredibly talented Mason was hired recently as CEO of the Grammy’s and the Recording Academy. Mason gave a brief speech and then introduced another of the Beach Boys’ No. 1 tunes from the 1960s.

Time has touched many of my memories of the epic basketball games between Arizona and Stanford at Maples Pavilion from 1988-2005, but the one I’ll never forget involved Mason, then a junior guard on Arizona’s No. 1 ranked team led by Sean Elliott.

On the tightest deadline I recall — my column was due at 11:30 p.m. — Mason was fouled with four seconds remaining as Stanford led 80-78. It was 11:25 p.m. I stood on the baseline at Maples more nervous than Mason, feeling the bad vibrations as Stanford’s “Sixth Man Club’’ bounced up and down on the springy old court.

If Mason made both shots, forcing overtime, my story wouldn’t make the next day’s newspaper, which had never happened. He missed. Arizona lost 83-78. He was inconsolable. But Mason long ago triumphed over that sad moment.

Mason was a positive force at Arizona, a wonderful and supportive teammate, whose career was detoured by knee surgery. Somehow he found a way to start 25 games and, most memorably, write the 1988 epic song “Wild About the Cats,’’ which was the anthem of Arizona’s No. 1-ranked 1988 Final Four team.

Since that day, Mason has penned and produced songs for music legends like Aretha Franklin, Michael Jackson and Elton John. Seeing him walk on stage to honor the group of my youth, the Beach Boys, made that long-ago night at Maples Pavilion a memory to treasure.

Arizona junior outfielder Chase Davis had hit 12 home runs through Friday’s game at Washington State. That puts the school record, 24, set by Canyon del Oro High School grad Shelley Duncan in 2001, in Davis’ sights. Duncan, who went on to play for the New York Yankees, required 56 games to hit his 24 homers. After today’s game at WSU, Davis will have 22 games plus the Pac-12 Tournament and, possibly, the NCAA Tournament to reach 24. Just getting to 20 would be a major achievement. Only Duncan, Pueblo High’s George Arias (23), Jason Thompson (20) and CDO grad C.J. Ziegler (20) have hit 20 or more in an Arizona season. …

… When long-time Flowing Wells High School baseball coach David Landrith was a catcher at Arizona, playing on the UA’s 1980 NCAA championship team, his father, Hobie Landrith, was often a visitor at Sancet/Kindall Stadium. Hobie played 14 years in the big leagues, most famously as a catcher for Casey Stengel’s 1962 Mets. Hobie was a proud parent; David became the UA’s starting catcher and played two years in the minor leagues. Hobie’s legacy carried on. David’s daughter, Robin Landrith, became an All-State catcher at Ironwood Ridge High School in 2012 and played four years at Baylor, helping the Bears to the 2014 Women’s College World Series and making Baylor’s all-decade team. Sadly, Hobie Landrith died in the San Francisco area last week. He was 93. David left high school coaching two years ago, Robin, who earned a master’s degree at Yale, is now an assistant coach at Boston College. …

… Baylor athletic director Mack Rhodes, a Rincon High School grad who began his college athletics administrative career at Arizona, last week told Texas reporters that the prolific Transfer Portal “is not what anyone signed up for.’’ Said Rhodes: “Right now, we literally have a pay-for-play system. We can dance around it, but that is what we have right now and I don’t think anybody particularly cares for it.” Well said, Mr. Rhodes.

Progress within Arizona’s football program can be viewed through scores of new faces, but it might be better seen by those who are no longer on the roster.

In Jedd Fisch’s first game as Arizona’s head coach, 2021, a loss against BYU, Gunner Cruz was the starting quarterback. Will Plummer became the starting QB in Game 3, against NAU (a loss) and Jordan McCloud became the starting QB in Game 4, a loss to Oregon.

All three QBs have eligibility remaining but Cruz is in the process of becoming a graduate assistant coach in the UA’s strength and conditioning department, Plummer is out of football and McCloud plays for James Madison.

Fisch didn’t settle. He didn’t get out of last place in the Pac-12 by settling. He has brought in transfers from Oregon, Georgia, UCLA, Cal and Washington this spring. Arizona’s roster has considerably more size and strength, much of it linked to Arizona’s highest-ranked recruiting classes in 20 or more years.

After another energetic and positive spring camp, the time is now for Arizona football. It enters the 2023 season in a better place than at any time since April of 2014, or about eight months before a top-10 UA team would reach the Fiesta Bowl.