Far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir emerges as Israel’s kingmaker

Less than 18 months after being ousted by a sprawling, eight-party coalition, Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to return to power — thanks to a large extent to the rise of an extreme-right grouping spearheaded by Itamar Ben-Gvir, an ultranationalist once convicted of incitement to racism.

With 86 per cent of votes counted, barring a late surprise, a bloc uniting Netanyahu’s Likud party, Ben-Gvir’s Religious Zionism and two ultra-Orthodox groups was on course for a majority in Tuesday’s election, giving Netanyahu the chance to form what would be one of the most rightwing governments in Israel’s history.

The rapid comeback would be a personal triumph for Netanyahu, who has dominated the past two decades of Israeli politics, but seen his political fortunes wane over the past two years as he has battled allegations of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and fallen out with former allies.

But it would also be the latest sign of the rightward drift of Israeli politics, with Religious Zionism on course to more than double its number of seats in parliament and become the third-biggest grouping, propelled by a surge in support for the hardline messages propagated by Ben-Gvir.

A disciple of Meir Kahane, a rabbi who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of citizenship and whose party was designated a terrorist organisation by the US, Ben-Gvir was, until recently, a fringe figure in Israeli politics.

But since entering parliament last year, he has enjoyed a rapid ascent, courting hardline voters with proposals such as expelling Palestinians he deems traitors, and giving Israeli soldiers engaged in confrontations with “terrorists” immunity from prosecution.

Last month, during a stand-off between Arab and Jewish youths in East Jerusalem, he brandished a handgun and urged police to shoot at Palestinians who were throwing stones.

Last year, Netanyahu said that Ben-Gvir — who until a couple of years ago kept a picture of Baruch Goldstein, who massacred 29 Palestinians in a mosque in 1994, in his house — was not fit to serve as a minister.

But as support for Religious Zionism surged in the run-up to Tuesday’s election, Netanyahu conceded that 46-year-old Ben-Gvir, who has said he will demand to be minister of public security in the new government, could serve in his cabinet.

Eran Amsalem, a scholar of political communication at the Hebrew University, said the most important reason for Religious Zionism’s surge was the vacuum to the right of Likud created by the collapse of the Yamina party of Naftali Bennett.

But he said Ben-Gvir’s ability to generate media attention, and concerns about security among Jewish voters in the wake of clashes in Israel’s mixed Jewish-Arab cities, which erupted during Israel’s 11-day war with militants in Gaza last year, had also played a role.

At a rally in Tel Aviv shortly before Tuesday’s vote, several supporters of Ben-Gvir said concerns about security were their main reason for backing him. “Ben-Gvir will protect the Jewish people. The Jews became a people who are persecuted in their own country,” said Elisheva. “The Jewish people have to protect themselves.”

Ellie, another supporter, said that he had been drawn to Ben-Gvir by his experiences in Israel’s military, where he said Israel’s rules of engagement prevented soldiers from dealing properly with terrorists.

“Four years ago I was on the other side,” he said gesturing to a group of anti-Ben-Gvir protesters outside the building where Ben-Gvir’s rally was held brandishing placards with messages such as ‘Shame on the occupation’. “But in the army I saw what really happens. I was in shock.”

Centrist and leftwing voters, however, are appalled by the rise of Ben-Gvir and his allies in Religious Zionism. “In a civilised country, [Ben-Gvir] should not be legal or even legitimate,” said Jonathan, a Jerusalemite who voted for the largely Arab Hadash party.

“Religious Zionism, the Knesset list that distorted the Zionist project and transformed it from the national home of the Jewish people into a project of conservative, rightwing, racist, religious Jewish supremacism in the spirit of Ben-Gvir’s teacher and rabbi, Meir Kahane, is now the third-largest political force in Israel,” ran an editorial in the liberal Haaretz newspaper. “That is the true, chilling significance of the election held on Tuesday.”

Alongside Ben-Gvir’s rhetoric, one of the most contested aspects of Religious Zionism’s platform is a proposal for an overhaul of the judiciary, which would weaken the Supreme Court’s ability to strike down laws, and give politicians control over the process for appointing judges. It would also scrap the offence of breach of trust — which is among the charges facing Netanyahu.

Bezalel Smotrich, Religious Zionism’s co-leader, insisted that the proposals would not be used to terminate the cases against Netanyahu, and the party argues that the changes are needed to curb excessive “judicial activism”.

But critics see the proposals as a fundamental threat to Israel’s institutional checks and balances that could pave the way for the slide into illiberalism that has taken place in Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

“While some of these proposals seem aimed at extracting . . . Netanyahu from his ongoing criminal trial, there is much more at stake,” said Yohanan Plesner, head of the Israel Democracy Institute. “If implemented, these proposals would threaten the independence of our judiciary and could expose Israel’s political system to systematic corruption.”

Likud officials have played down the influence that Religious Zionism will hold over a future coalition, and Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he planned to form a “stable” government and avoid “unnecessary adventures”.

But other observers think that the idea that Likud will be able to control Religious Zionism is mistaken. “[There are some who think that Religious Zionism] will be quieter if they are in the rightwing tent,” said one western diplomat. “But it is delusional to think that they won’t have demands.”