‘Détente’ between Iran and Saudi Arabia raises hopes for steps towards peace in Yemen

The deal renewing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran had barely been signed on March 10 in Beijing when all eyes turned to Yemen, where the two rival powers have been in indirect confrontation since 2015.

The surprise agreement between the two Middle Eastern powers may have its most concrete impact in Yemen, which has been ravaged by a war between its government, supported by a Saudi-led military coalition, and Houthi rebels supported by Iran.

Both sides were quick to welcome news of the agreement between the Islamic Republic and the Wahhabi monarchy, signalling the potential significance of the deal.

The Yemeni government said it hoped that the renewed diplomatic ties between the two countries would allow for “the start of a new era in regional relationships, and put an end to Iran’s interference in Yemeni affairs”.  

Meanwhile, Mohamed Abdel Salam, spokesman for the Shiite rebels who seized Yemen’s capital Sanaa in the beginning of 2015, said that “the region has long needed a return to normal relations”. 

A positive outcome for Yemen? 

Whether an immediate consequence of the agreement, or a simple coincidence of the calendar, UN-sponsored talks between the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels began the next day on March 11 in Geneva. 

The talks are the seventh such meeting aiming to implement an agreement on prisoner exchanges made in Stockholm five years ago. 

The details of negotiations that led to the agreement between Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are unknown, and both countries have yet to prove that they will honour their word.  

Yet, there is now the prospect of “direct channels of communication being opened between the two powers”, says Riadh Sidaoui, director of the Geneva-based Arab Centre for Political and Social Research and Analysis. 

”We can even say, for the first time, that there is now real hope for a major breakthrough on prisoner exchanges because the parties have agreed to 11 days of talks, which will allow for several subjects to be discussed,” he says.  

Optimism stems directly from the renewal of diplomatic ties, he says, “since it is now expected that the Saudis will exert pressure on the Yemeni government and the Iranians on the Houthis to obtain an initial breakthrough. Then, if they are successful on the issue of prisoners, they will need to push talks even further to reach a peace agreement”.       

A ‘credibility test’ for Iran? 

The Saudi’s will likely wait for proof of goodwill from Tehran before placing too much faith in the renewal of diplomatic ties between the two countries, says Saudi political commentator based in Riyad, Saad Abdullah al-Hamid. 

“We are in an intermediary period that will serve as a credibility test for Iran. It’s a question of seeing if Iran genuinely intends to stick to the promises that made the Beijing agreement possible and if relations can actually improve.”

Yemen could be the testing ground for building or breaking trust between the two countries – and the place where Iran and its allies are expected to make changes.  

“Multiple issues are on the table and discussions will cover Yemen and all subjects related to it,” al-Hamid says. “That includes Iranian meddling in Yemen, the role of militias, the threat the Houthis pose to the Saudi Kingdom, and transport of hydrocarbons.” 

Chief among these is security in Saudi Arabia.  

In recent years, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been accused of carrying out drone attacks and missile strikes on Saudi oil installations.    

Between Saudi and Iranian diplomats, “getting a concrete solution to the Yemen crisis that will placate Saudi fears about Houthi attacks in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been the key sticking point”, says Simon Mabon, professor of international relations and Middle East specialist at the University of Lancaster, UK.

“If the Saudis have reached an agreement with Iran, then they have figured out a way of either extricating themselves from Yemen or guaranteeing their security.” 

Extricating itself from the conflict by building trust with Iran may be a key concern for Saudi Arabia, says former Iranian diplomat Hadi Afkahi.  

“Saudi Arabia expected to conquer Yemen in six months, but it’s now embroiled in a war that has lasted for years. That’s why Mohammed bin Salman now wants to end the conflict… to turn his attention to the enormous plans for his Vision 2030 [for Saudi Arabia],” he says.

“The first priority is to re-establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the first step is to open embassies and send ambassadors. Then, when issues directly concerning each country have been dealt with, it will be a question of regional issues. The first of these that was brought up in negotiations was the war in Yemen.” 

‘A moment of optimism’ 

The conflict in Yemen has caused 377,000 deaths in eight years according to the UN, and sparked a severe humanitarian crisis, which has left 80 percent of the population struggling to access food, water and health care.   

After a six-month ceasefire, which brought about a marked reduction in violence even though it ended in October, the Beijing agreement brings the potential for real change on the ground.  

But peace is not inevitable.  

“My big fear is that this will be an agreement that neglects, ignores and marginalizes Yemenis themselves, who have been suffering tremendous hardship and huge pressures over the past decade, with conflict, with environmental challenges, and now with huge food shortages,” says Mabon. 

“This looks like it is the type of agreement that is in the realm of high politics, that the Saudis and the Iranians would make with elites. And those elites are not necessarily listening to and articulating the concerns of ordinary Yemenis who are struggling to put food on the table, to survive, to get medicine for their children, or to allow them to go to school.” 

As regional relations show signs of improvement, the complexity of the conflict cannot be underestimated. For instance, there is an ongoing threat from violent jihadist factions and separatist desires in south Yemen, formerly an independent state. 

As much as renewed tied between Iran and Saudi Arabia have brought about a rare “moment of optimism”, Mabon says: “The conflict in Yemen is not just about Saudi Arabia and Iran. It’s also about local grievances. It’s about control of territory. It’s about access to politics. It’s about a vision for the state. And these are not matters that can be can be negotiated away by elites in Riyadh and Teheran.” 

This article has been adapted from the original in French.