NEW DELHI: After last week’s pullback rally that saw Sensex and Nifty gaining over 2.5 per cent, the domestic stock market will continue to be dominated by news related to global macros, crude oil movement and FII flows. On the domestic side, key events to watch out for would be the monthly F&O expiry, fiscal deficit numbers, auto sales data, progress of monsoon and Covid cases.
Here’s breaking down the key triggers for Dalal Street this week:
Global macros
The US would report its GDP data on June 29, followed by the initial jobless claims data on June 30. The UK would also report its GDP numbers this week.
“Globally, investors will keenly analyse the US quarterly GDP growth rate numbers. The USA would officially enter into a recession if they post negative growth and thus this could have a spill-over effect on global markets,” said Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities.
Crude oil movement
Amid worries that rising interest rates could push the world economy into recession, crude oil posted the second weekly decline last week. Brent crude settled at $113.12 a barrel.
F&O Expiry
Thanks to the scheduled expiry of June month derivatives contracts on Thursday, volatility is expected to remain this week as well.
FII exodus
Amid rising interest rates, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 2.13 lakh crore from equities so far in 2022. This month alone, the figure is nearing the Rs 46,000 crore mark.
Although domestic investors have been absorbing most of the outflow by foreign investors, FIIs remain a key player in the Indian market.
Auto sales data
Auto stocks would be in focus this week as automakers will start reporting their June month sale figures from June 1. Last week, the Nifty Auto index had rallied 6.95 per cent on the back of softening commodity prices.
Technical Outlook
On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a bullish harami candlestick pattern. Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking, said Nifty is currently hovering around the resistance zone of 15,700 levels and is likely to face stiff resistance around the 15,900-16,250 zone if the rebound extends further.
“On the other hand, a breakdown below 15,350 would again change the market tone in the favour of bears,” he said.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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