Covid task group asks govt to be prepared for 23% hospitalisations in third wave

The group assigned with the Covid emergency strategy has suggested preparing 23 hospitalisations for every 100 positive COVID-19 cases in a future surge. The recommendation was shared with the government last month. This estimation was done by Empowered Group 1 headed by NITI Aayog member V K Paul and is higher than the projection it had come out with in September last year ahead of the COVID-19 second wave, when the calculation suggested that about 20 per cent patients with severe/moderately severe symptoms would require hospitalisation.

This estimation, by the Empowered Group 1 headed by NITI Aayog member V K Paul, is higher than the projection it had made in September 2020 ahead of the second wave, when it calculated that about 20% patients with “severe/ moderately severe” symptoms would require hospitalisation.

The recommendation of setting aside a larger number of hospital beds comes after the covid second wave. On June 1, during its peak, for instance, when the active caseload across the country stood at 18 lakh, 21.74 per cent cases required hospitalisation in the 10 states with the maximum cases and out of them, 2.2 per cent were admitted in ICU.

The group in its latest projection is considering a peak of 4-5 lakh cases per day, and has recommended that at least two lakh ICU beds should be ready by next month followed by 1.2 lakh ICU beds with ventilators, 7 lakh non-ICU hospital beds (of them 5 lakh oxygen-enabled), and 10 lakh Covid isolation care beds, as reported by the Indian Express.