China’s yuan hovers at 3-week high ahead of Biden-Xi meeting

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SHANGHAI — China’s yuan hovered at a

three-week high against the dollar on Monday on rising hopes for

an improvement in Sino-U.S. relations, while sightly

better-than-expected October activity indicators also lent

support to the local currency.

Traders said the main focus would be a virtual meeting

between U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterpart Xi Jinping

on Tuesday, with some investors raising their bets for partial

removal of tariffs.

“If Sino-U.S. relations improve further, the yuan will

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continue strengthening,” said Li Liuyang, chief currency analyst

at China Merchants Bank, though he added that 6.35 per dollar

could provide strong resistance for the yuan in the near-term.

Prior to market opening, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)

set the midpoint rate at 6.3896 per dollar, 169 pips

or 0.26% firmer than the previous fix of 6.4065, the strongest

since Oct. 27.

The firmer official guidance pushed the yuan’s value against

it major trading partners to 101.33, the highest

level since Dec. 18, 2015, according to Reuters calculations

based on official data.

Until this year a reading of 98 on the trade-weighted CFETS

yuan basket index was “about the maximum we thought the

government would tolerate” said Arthur Kroeber, head of research

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at Gavekal, speaking at a briefing in Shanghai.

“(But) exports are very strong and capital inflows seem to

be decent … so we’re not looking at a situation where there’s

massive depreciation.”

In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at

6.3798 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.3821 at midday,

not far from a high of 6.3782 hit on Oct. 25.

Relations between Beijing and Washington have been one of

the key factors influencing the yuan over the past few years,

analysts and traders said.

The U.S.-China trade talks, along with optimism about a

pause in China’s regulatory clampdown and a potential pick-up of

bond inflows could support the yuan in the near term, HSBC said.

“However, assuming that there will not be a dramatic shift

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in U.S.-China relations, we doubt that USD/RMB and the DXY index

can keep diverging from each other,” analysts at the U.S.

investment bank said in a note, adding that the yuan already

appeared to be slightly overvalued.

“We believe China has been subtly leaning against the RMB’s

outperformance, via the fixings for instance,” they added,

expecting the yuan to trade at 6.4 at end-2021.

On the macroeconomic data front, China’s industrial output

grew at a surprisingly faster pace in October, despite fresh

curbs to control COVID-19 outbreaks and supply shortages that

have threatened to undercut the recovery in the world’s

second-largest economy.

“Even as supply side pressures should continue to ease, we

expect year-on-year growth in industry and the wider economy to

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slow further in Q4 and early 2022 amid the real estate slowdown

and impact of the current wave of COVID outbreaks,” said Louis

Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

“In response, we expect policymakers to take more easing

measures to prevent growth from falling too much; the impact

should largely kick in early next year.”

By midday, the broad dollar index stood at 95.012,

while the offshore yuan was trading at 6.378 per

dollar.

The yuan market at 0400 GMT:

ONSHORE SPOT:

Item Current Previous Change

PBOC midpoint 6.3896 6.4065 0.26%

Spot yuan 6.3821 6.3785 -0.06%

Divergence from -0.12%

midpoint*

Spot change YTD 2.29%

Spot change since 2005 29.68%

revaluation

Key indexes:

Item Current Previous Change

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Thomson 101.27 101.19 0.1

Reuters/HKEX

CNH index

Dollar index 95.012 95.133 -0.1

*Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number

indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to

rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each

morning.

OFFSHORE CNH MARKET

Instrument Current Difference

from onshore

Offshore spot yuan 6.378 0.06%

*

Offshore 6.5487 -2.43%

non-deliverable

forwards

**

*Premium for offshore spot over onshore

**Figure reflects difference from PBOC’s official midpoint,

since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint.

.

(Reporting by Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith; editing by

Richard Pullin)