Australian Open men’s singles preview, prediction: Returning Djokovic the outright favourite, but can anyone stop him?

Holger Rune remains the only player to have defeated Novak Djokovic since his return in October last year. The Serb played four tournaments until the end of 2022, reached the final in all, but was stopped by the young Danish international in Paris Bercy to claim his maiden Masters 1000 title. It certainly takes a lot to outsmart an in-form Djokovic. Add to that, one of his favourite venues where he won six titles, and the difficulty level automatically goes sky high. But Djokovic is a different beast at the Melbourne Park. The last time he lost a match at the Australian Open was by an unheralded Chung Hyeon in the fourth round in 2018.

The 35-year-old, who has since won in all three editions he played in Melbourne, returns to Australia, after the Covid drama, hungrier than ever. And with the Adelaide 250 title last week, Djokovic heads to the Slam as the outright favourite. But can anyone stop him?

FIRST QUARTER:

All the talk about Djokovic, but it is Rafael Nadal who is the defending champion at Melbourne Park and is also the top seed. Not the usual in the Australian Open. The first, of course, since 2010. And unlike 2022, Nadal is this time heading to the tournament without any injury concerns, making him certainly one of the favourites to stop the red-hot Djokovic.

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However, the Spaniard has been handed a very tough draw. He will start against 21-year-old Jack Draper, who has had a good run of form of late, including one in Adelaide last week, and is also left-handed. In the second round, Nadal could possibly be up against 2022 Next Gen Finals winner Brandon Nakashima. If he manages to go past the two youngsters, Frances Tiafoe awaits in the fourth round, the only player to have beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam last year. The winner gets Daniil Medvedev, last year’s finalist, in the quarters. But the Russian will have a tough task in overcoming in-form Sebastian Korda, who held match point against Djokovic in the Adelaide final last week, in the third round.

Semifinalist: Nadal

SECOND QUARTER:

There are two top-10 seeded players in this section of the draw – Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Greek may have blown hot and cold throughout 2022, albeit ending on a decent note with win in Mubadala World Tennis Championship, and may not have shown that spark in Grand Slams yet, but Tsitsipas has been fairly impressive in Melbourne Park. He has made three semi-finals in last four Australian Open editions, his only blip being a third-round exit in 2020 to Milos Raonic.

Tsitsipas will open against Quentin Halys, who pushed Djokovic to two tie-breakers in his Adelaide International tie and reached the quarters in Auckland. The 24-year-old might then possibly run into Tallon Griekspoor, who recently won the ATP 250 in Pune last week, before setting up a potential pre-quarters tie with Jannik Sinner.

Auger-Aliassime has the momentum he requires heading into Australian Open, having won three titles at the fag end of 2022, but the Canadian also faltered at the start of the season, losing to Alex Popyrin in the second round in Adelaide. His biggest threat will be Cam Norrie, who is presently 5-0 in 2023, which includes a come-from-behind win against Nadal in United Cup.

Semifinalist: Tsitsipas/Norrie

THIRD QUARTER:

This is where things will get interesting. The only talk about this section so far has been the possibility of the Wimbledon 2022 final in the quarters will Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios both in this part of the draw. But while Djokovic is an absolute certainty despite the presence of seeded players like Pablo Carreño Busta, Alex de Minaur and Grigor Dimitrov in his draw, but for Kyrgios, it may not be a walk in the park.

The Aussie’s most immediate threat is Rune, who beat Djokovic in Paris Masters final, in the third round and Andrey Rublev in the pre-quarters.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

FOURTH QUARTER:

This part of the draw could be all about opportunity. Casper Ruud, despite his exploits in 2022 where he reached two Slam finals and almost became the ATP No.1, has created that buzz around him. Probably, his first-round loss in Auckland three days back, could be a reason. But with Ruud being handed a fairly comfortable draw, with Matteo Berrettini being the only threat, in the fourth round, it’s an opportunity for the Norwegian to once again make his mark in the Slams.

Opportunity also lies for Taylor Fritz, who stands in the other end section of this draw. A fairly easy draw hand him the chance to reach his first Grand Slam semis.

Focus will also be on returning Alexander Zverev, who will be playing his first Slam match since his injury in French Open.

Semifinalist: Ruud.

Semi–finals: Nadal beats Tsitsipas/Norrie; Djokovic beats Ruud.

Final: Djokovic beats Nadal.