Australian Open 2023 Final, Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: Where the battle could be decided

A final between two contrasting players create more intrigue with the build-up having elements to debate upon among fans and experts. But what happens when two near-similar ideologies or styles are up for a battle? Saturday’s final of the Australian Open women’s singles draw, at the Rod Laver arena, will see two of the biggest hitters of the game – Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina – lock horns under the lights for the elusive Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup, and there is just too little to separate the two. With Sabalenka gunning for her maiden major while the reigning Wimbledon winner Rybakina hoping add a second Grand Slam title to her cabinet, the match-up boils eventually boils down to just two factors.

Ahead of the blockbuster meeting in the Australian Open final on the Rod Laver Arena between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, we take a tactical dive into the factors that could decide the summit clash…

The second serve factor:

“I think who serves well tomorrow goes through. That’s my feeling,” said Stefano Vukov, Rybakina’s coach of four years, when asked about the match-up.

ALSO READ: Australian Open final Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: H2H record, key stats, records in line – All you need to know

That could be one way of looking at the battle. With both players having over over 55 per cent first serves in and around 75 per cent win rate behind it, Rybakina and Sabalenka would want to stay clean on their service games. The world no.5 has been relatively more astute in that department so far, having been broken just six times, compared to 10 for the no.22 seed.

When the standards are so high and the numbers are so near similar, the little factors tend to widen the gap between the two. In this match-up, the second-serve factor could pose the difference. Sabalenka has a much higher win behind her second-serve (64 per cent) than Rybakina (53), but have almost an identical win percentage against the opponent’s second serve.

Mental game:

They may share the same ideologies as a player, but are of contrasting personalities. One of Rybakina’s greatest strength is her poise, her ability to not soak in the pressure even under the worst of situations. Remember the Wimbledon final? The crowd was behind Ons Jabeur, who went a set up comfortably. Rybakina then pulled off a stunner, but what actually stunned the audience was her very reaction after the greatest achievement of her career – she barely broke into a smile. It was the same quality that helped her stay toe-to-toe against sentimental favourite and two-time winner Victoria Azarenka in the semi-final last day when her biggest weapon, her serve, failed to befriend her.

Sabalenka, on the other hand, doesn’t shy away from showing her emotions. Although the version of the 24-year-old that made this brilliant run in Melbourne Park over the fortnight is of stark contrast to the one witnessed a year ago when she was struggling with her serve and her fragile emotions. But 12 months of hard work has made her serve rock-solid, which has in turn brought about that confidence, that has allowed her to find a zen-like peace.

“I was trying to scream less after some bad points or some errors,” Sabalenka said. “I was just trying to hold myself, stay calm, just think about the next point. I’m still screaming ‘C’mon!’ and all that stuff, just less negative emotions.”

Heading into the biggest night of her career, Sabalenka will want to draw confidence from not just her 10-match winning streak this month, but also her 3-0 head-to-head win against Rybakina.

However, all those ties are of distant memories, the last of those being in 2021. While Sabalenka had established herself as a top-10 player by then, Rybakina was only showing glimpses of her true form. Remember, for the 23-year-old, a Grand Slam final is a familiar territory, one she won in adverse situation. And in the only meeting, albeit unofficial, post the Wimbledon haul, Rybakina had bounced back from a set down to beat Sabalenka in the World Tennis League last month.