Whether Morrison agrees or not, coal power is now consigned to history

It hardly matters any more whether or not Australia’s Scott Morrison joins the pact because there will not be much of a global market for his thermal coal exports in a few years.

It has been a good week for Mr Sharma. On Tuesday, deforestation and methane leakage (another low-hanging fruit) were both confronted head-on. Next was the coal coup, which is a political stunner, the fruit of months of skilful diplomacy and creative forms of finance that perhaps only the City of London could have pulled off.

Pakistan’s climate chief Malik Aslam was effusive in his praise, saying the British had pulled an impossible rabbit out of the hat, a view widely shared among officials from the developing world at this COP26.

The phase-out model for the world is the Just Energy Transition Partnership with South Africa, an $US8.5 billion ($11.5 billion) package unveiled in Glasgow with the backing of the US, UK, and the EU.

South Africa relies on coal for 87 per cent of its electricity and 74 per cent of its primary energy. Its power behemoth Eskom is not only near bankruptcy, but just about the dirtiest polluter on the planet. The problem has long seemed intractable.

From this grim starting-point, the country has committed to go all the way to a UN-approved “1.5 degree” climate path as soon as 2030. Eskom will retire up to 12 gigawatts (GW) of coal, using a mix of grants and concessionary loans to re-employ the workforce and switch the whole system to renewables. “We’re doing this with unprecedented speed and scale,” said president Cyril Ramaphosa.

Indonesia could be next in line for this formula. It is planning to shut 5.5GW of coal plants over the next eight years so long as the world helps to fund the wind, solar, and geothermal needed to replace them. It is pressing ahead against entrenched vested interests, even though it mines coal in abundance and relies on the fuel for 65 per cent of its energy. The Philippines is eyeing closure of 10 out of its 28 coal plants.

While India’s Narendra Modi has not signed the pledge on coal, he has committed to 500GW of renewables by 2030, with a clean power target of 50 per cent. “We’re not worried about rising coal in India any more because they are not going to need it. The story is really about how quickly they are going to retire plants,” said Ember’s Mr Jones.

Which leaves China as the last big hold-out. Global Energy Monitor says it commissioned 38GW of new coal in 2020, three times as much as the rest of the world put together. It makes up 85 per cent of all plants under development anywhere. It also accounts for 28 per cent of global emissions , and the share is rising fast.

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The world is not going to tolerate this for long. China is isolated in Glasgow. Its bid to break US dominance and court global favour with its brand of post-Western Confucian leadership is going nowhere unless it bites the bullet on coal.

China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has been strangely silent at COP26 so far. It is hard to believe that he will leave without offering something. There may yet be a big surprise.

Telegraph, London

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