Prediction: It won’t be business as usual at the ACM Awards

This year is no exception. Hardy and Lainey Wilson lead the pack with seven and six nominations respectively. While it’s unlikely they’re going to sweep, they do make a statement: We’re here.

More traditional acts are also represented (Brooks & Dunn, Lady A and Little Big Town, for example), but if a newcomer is going to make an impression, it’s here. Hardy and Wilson could underscore their arrival with wins in Song of the Year, Event of the Year and Visual Media of the Year, where they’re nominated together for “wait in the truck.”

Wilson has a better opportunity to take a big swing. She’s nominated in Female Artist, Album of the Year and Single of the Year. Look for her to win at least one of those.

Another surprise in this competition: Morgan Wallen. After his year of exile, he came back stronger than ever and landed spots in Entertainer of the Year and Male Artist. Expect him to get one – or both.

So who’s in, who’s out?

• Carrie Underwood only got one nomination (Entertainer of the Year) despite having a big tour in 2022. This could be her moment but, usually, you need a Female Artist nod to pull off something like that.

• Kane Brown finally cracked the field as a Male Artist and has shared nominations with his wife, Katelyn Brown, for “Thank God.” One of those should convert.

• Cole Swindell is littered throughout the nominations for his Jo Dee Messina tribute, “She Had Me at Heads Carolina,” but that just seems like a hat tip, not a true sweep.

Who will win? Here are the artists most likely:

FEMALE ARTIST – Here’s where it’s likely Lainey Wilson will tower. She won this from the CMA folks. She could do it with the ACM faithful, too. Miranda Lambert is the old-timer in the bunch but she has other dragons to slay. Give it to Lainey.

MALE ARTIST – Thomas Rhett isn’t here (what?) but Luke Combs and Chris Stapleton have the “veteran” nominations in hand. Kane Brown, Jordan Davis and Morgan Wallen are the wild cards. And, unless voters feel they’ve got to make a safe choice, we’re going with Wallen.

GROUP: Easiest of the year. It’s Old Dominion. The group is still relevant; the other four have had stronger years.

DUO: The War and Treaty is the newcomer in this field but Brothers Osborne has helped expand country’s audience with recent themes. While the other three are regulars, we’re rooting for Brothers Osborne.

SINGLE OF THE YEAR – Cody Johnson is the wild card. He has won prizes for “Til You Can’t” and should pick up something at the ACMs. He has three chances. This seems like one for “Never Wanted to Be That Girl” (from Carly Pearce and Ashley McBride). That should spread the wealth. But if Johnson wins, don’t call us out.

SONG OF THE YEAR – Here’s where “Til You Can’t” seems likely. If it has competition, it’s from “wait in the truck” from Hardy and Lainey Wilson.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR — Miranda Lambert (“Palomino”) or Luke Combs (“Growin’ Up”). Sweeps could happen but “Bell Bottom Country” doesn’t seem like the broom to ride. Combs has a slight edge over Lambert.

VISUAL MEDIA OF THE YEAR – Here’s where the Browns can shine. Video of the Year – as it used to be called – has often been a place for newcomers to step into the winners’ circle. “Wait in the truck” is here, too, and “What He Didn’t Do” has a shot as well. Still, “Thank God” we have a place for Kane and Katelyn.

MUSIC EVENT OF THE YEAR – “Thank God” is a good bet, but usually a wild card wins. Cole Swindell and Jo Dee Messina would be a great nod to the past. Hardy and Wilson would find a home for their “wait in the truck” love. It’s anyone’s game.

ARTIST/SONGWRITER OF THE YEAR — Here’s a way to be more inclusive. Luke Combs, Miranda Lambert and Morgan Wallen are competing with Ernest and Hardy. If Hardy comes up short in other categories, it’s his. Ditto: Miranda and Morgan.

NEW FEMALE ARTIST – Priscilla Block made an impression touring with Justin Moore; Megan Moroney won the CMT award for breakthrough female artist; Caitlyn Smith has “Tacoma” on her resume and Morgan Wade scored with “Wilder Days.” That just leaves Hailey Whitters. Who wins? Roll the dice for Morgan Wade.

NEW MALE ARTIST – Ernest is here. Zach Bryan is here. Dylan Scott is here. Bailey Zimmerman is here. Jelly Roll, however, is not – and he won three CMT awards. Go with Zach Bryan.

The 58th Academy of Country Music Awards airs May 11 on Amazon Prime. Dolly Parton and Garth Brooks host.