18,330-18,350 range getting tougher to break and we may remain in this zone until expiry: Sudeep Shah
“On the higher side, 18,330-18,350 is getting tougher to break and it is more likely that we would be in this consolidation zone until the expiry this Thursday. So 18,050 is a dip towards that zone. 18,100 should be used to go long and 18,350 is the zone that we feel should exercise some kind of a caution,” says Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President, Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities.
Are we likely to break out of this market range anytime soon?
This is currently a pullback rally. The market is in a pullback mode. Support zone lies around 18,050-18,100 and at 18,100, put writing is holding strong now. The support is well placed at 18,050-18,100 with banking and IT making a comeback. It is getting good support at lower levels.
But on the higher side, 18,330-18,350 is getting tougher to break and it is more likely that we would be in this consolidation zone until the expiry this Thursday.
So 18,050 is a dip towards that zone. 18,100 should be used to go long and 18,350 is the zone that we feel should exercise some kind of a caution. But within this range bound move, what has happened is that a few sectors like metals, PSU banking and private insurance made a big move from the swing lows of seven-eight days back that the markets had witnessed at around 17,800 levels.
We feel that right PSU banks, metals and private insurance should be looked at even while the markets are within a consolidation range and stocks within these sectors could give good outperformance.
What will be your top ideas then? How would you play this essentially?
The top idea is that with the banking space outperforming right now we feel that this stock would give us a good opportunity to make the next move in the banking space on the upside. The Bank Nifty is still 1.5%, 2% away from it’s all-time high. Axis Bank is at a fresh all-time high and has been outperforming since the last few months compared to Nifty and Bank Nifty both.
So while the Bank Nifty was about to cross its 20 DMA a few days back, Axis Bank has been sustaining above its major moving averages including the shortest 20 DMA. We feel that any dip in this stock should be bought with Rs 935 stop loss and Rs 1,020 target. On the weekly charts if we see higher top and higher bottom formation, that gives us an indication that the structure as well as the data points are in favour of going long for Axis Bank.
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